Without A Horse: Four Reasons Why Donald Cerrone Will Never Be UFC Champ

Few fighters are able to put forth the admirable consistency that Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone did from November 2013 to May 2015.

The 32-year-old veteran racked off an astonishing eight-straight Octagon victories en route to challenging champion Rafael dos Anjos for the UFC lightweight strap back at UFC on FOX 17 this past December. But despite his past success against divisional standouts like Benson Henderson, Jim Miller, Myles Jury, and Edson Barboza, Cerrone was bulldozed by “RDA” to the tune of a 66-second TKO loss.

In typical Cerrone fashion, he booked a fight just 13 days after the title defeat at this weekend’s at UFC Fight Night 83 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, where he takes on a fellow “Cowboy,” late replacement Alex Oliveira, in his welterweight debut.

While Cerrone’s skillset and size could translate well to the 170-pound faction, it’s going to be a long road ahead before he finds himself contending for another promotional title. In fact, he may never get there again.

Here are four glaring reasons why the Colorado native will never taste UFC gold.

Reason 1: Lightweight depth

Much like Benson Henderson and now Anthony “Showtime” Pettis, Cerrone is beginning to realize that one prominent loss in the lightweight division can crush a fighter’s stock.

As it stands today, the 155-pound roster is arguably the deepest in all of mixed martial arts (MMA). Champion Rafael dos Anjos looks near unstoppable, current UFC featherweight king Conor McGregor is on the cusp of challenging RDA at UFC 197 March 5, undefeated wrestler Khabib Nurmagomedov is on his way back, and Eddie Alvarez may be more deserving than any of those fighters when it comes to a title shot, not to mention the presence of veteran Nate Diaz and the recent ascension of Tony Ferguson.

So it’s easy to see how difficult it will be for Cerrone to quickly regain momentum, leapfrog a reasonable number of these top fighters, forge another promising win streak, and lock down yet another shot at lightweight gold.

We’ve seen crazier things happen inside of the Octagon and among UFC matchmakers, but it’s presumably going to take “Cowboy” at least another two years before he’d be considered the division’s No. 1 contender.

Reason 2: Welterweight depth

A near spitting image of the UFC lightweight division, the welterweight roster possesses just as much depth and talent heading into 2016.

In Cerrone’s defense, we have yet to see him compete at the 170-pound level and are unaware of how the promotion plans to utilize his marketability moving forward. But assuming he has to exact similar success at 170 pounds that he would at 155, it’s safe to say “Cowboy” will be fighting an uphill battle.

With top contenders like Carlos Condit, Stephen Thompson, Demian Maia, Rory MacDonald, Tyron Woodley, Matt Brown, Johny Hendricks, and even Tarec Saffiedine, the welterweight pool is already an overflowing body of water. Not to mention a possible return of former pound-for-pound great Georges St-Pierre, or an entrance to the mix by Conor McGregor.

While the acquisition of Cerrone will add much excitement to the division and create potential barnburners opposite combatants like Patrick Cote, Thiago Alves, Lorenz Larkin, Mike Pyle, Erick Silva, and maybe even Dan Hardy, don’t expect “Cowboy” to contend for the 170-pound strap anytime soon.

Reason 3: Fight rate

At the age of 32, Cerrone’s willingness to fight as much as humanly possible could be beginning to take a toll on him.

Since the beginning of 2013, “Cowboy” has fought an alarming 12 times. He has competed alongside everyone from Eddie Alvarez to John Makdessi, from Adriano Martins to Evan Dunham, and from K.J. Noons to champion dos Anjos.

While Cerrone’s high fight rate is in part a result of his ability to pick apart opponents, absorb little damage, and capture victory, how long can he possibly keep this up? Now a member of the two most dangerous and tumultuous divisions in all of MMA, at what point does the veteran run himself thin?

It’s an admirable trait to possess in today’s game when champions and contenders are pulling out of fights within 24 hours of each other, but Cerrone has to understand that fighting guys like Tim Means (his original opponent for UFC FN 83) and Alex Oliveira isn’t going to land him any closer to the championship doorstep. It will only make his journey more physically and mentally demanding.

Reason 4: Past shortcomings

Even if Cerrone is able to bypass the divisional depth and physical demand of fighting five or six times a year, history has shown us that he tends to fade under championship spotlight.

Whether it was his recent first-round debacle opposite RDA or his 0-3 record in WEC title fights, “Cowboy” never seems to put it together when it counts the most. He has also come up short in big fights without title implications such as his one-sided defeats at the hands of Anthony Pettis and Nate Diaz a few years back.

While some of Cerrone’s failures in the UFC and WEC can be attributed to running into wood chippers like RDA and Benson Henderson at the completely wrong time, his overall skillset and damaging precision suggest he should be able to handle the fire.

On paper, he’s quickly beginning to resemble the second coming (or shortcoming) of former lightweight and featherweight standout Kenny “Ken Flo” Florian, who lost three UFC title fights spanning two divisions and one lightweight title eliminator bout all within five years.