UFC on FOX 12: Robbie Lawler vs. Matt Brown Fight Breakdown

Exciting welterweight contenders Robbie Lawler and Matt Brown will square off this evening (Sat. July 26, 2014) in a potential FOTN candidate at UFC on FOX 12. Fans in the SAP Center in San Jose, California will be treated to two hungry sluggers colliding, and both guys like to get it done on the feet. The winner, of course, has the chance to challenge for Johny Hendricks’ title.

Without further ado, let’s see how these two war torn welterweight veterans stack up:

Striking

This is where I feel both guys will want the fight to take place, and with good reason; Brown has a 63.16% KO rate with 12 wins from 19 by T/KO, and Lawler has a very impressive 82.6% T/KO ratio with 19 from 23 wins. ‘The Immortal’ describes himself as a technical brawler, but ‘Ruthless’ has rounded his brutal KO power as he has matured. Brown has the height and reach advantage, but only by an inch.

What Erick Silva exposed in defeat against Brown could well be the key to victory for Lawler, as it appears the taller man doesn’t like taking body shots. A probably harsh weight cut that meant Brown missed the limit by 1.5 pounds could also play a factor in his strength and energy levels. I’d say Lawler has the power advantage here, but he shouldn’t get too laxed with a finisher like Brown. Nonetheless, I’m calling it 60-40 Lawler

Wrestling

We have seen both guys come unstuck against wrestlers in the past, but more recently no-one has had much luck with these two. Of course Johny Hendricks was able to take down ‘Ruthless’ during their UFC 171 encounter, but I feel that Lawler’s build and strength will help prevent ‘The Immortal’ from getting enough leverage in the clinch or shoot.

Formerly an All-State wrestler and linebacker, I’d say that the ATT product Lawler has the edge on credentials, but I can’t really see this department being tested on fight night. When it comes down to it, I’d say that Lawler has a slight edge due to natural strength, build and experience. Only slight though, at 55-45 Lawler

Submissions

Here is where I feel Brown would have a more clear advantage, through experience and credentials. Possessing five submission wins to Lawler’s one, and also holding a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu brown belt, ‘The Immortal’ may want to lock in a choke if he is able to rock ‘Ruthless’ throughout the fight. That being said, Brown has been tapped or napped/snapped nine times as a pro, and Lawler has been submitted on five occasions.

‘The Immortal’ actually started training in Japanese Jiu Jitsu as a youth, but his long limbs may work against him on the ground. I’d call it 60-40 Browne

Now taking place at a catchweight of 172.5 pounds, is Brown’s body telling him that he can’t make the cut to welterweight anymore? If so, surely his future hopes of challenging for a title in that weight class are dashed. Perhaps he just had a rough cut, or some complications in camp for this fight.

Either way, I’d hope that it doesn’t impact on his mindset for tonight’s bout. Any signs of weakness could prove very costly against an experienced and emotionless finisher like Lawler. How do you feel this fight will pan out?