UFC Fight Night 45: Cerrone vs. Miller LowKick Staff Picks

Pivotal lightweight positioning will be on the line this Wednesday night (July 16, 2014) when No. 6-ranked Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone takes on No. 7 Jim Miller in the main event of UFC Fight Night 45 from Revel Casino in Atlantic City, New Jersey.

Both fighters have finished their most recent bouts, with Cerrone taking out talented but enigmatic No. 13-ranked Edson Barboza at UFC on FOX 11, while Miller submitted late replacement Yancy Medeiros at UFC 172.

“Cowboy” has a three-fight win streak intact, while Miller has won two straight and three out of his last four. Their main event bout promises to be a hard-fought affair with the winner most likely receiving a huge fight their next time out.

Our picks are in for this pivotal 155-pound showdown:

Mike Drahota: This is a close bout on paper, and it should be an exciting one. Both Cerrone and Miller deliver each time out to the cage, and this time, an absolutely crucial ranking spot will be on the line. Cerrone has looked beyond sharp in his recent three-fight finish streak, and Miller has been strong in rebounding from his UFC 157 loss to Pat Healy. However, it’s “Cowboy” that has been facing the much tougher competition.

The former kickboxing champion will hold the edge on the feet if he can keep his distance by working his jab and low kicks. Miller’s best shot on the feet is to turn this into an ugly affair by pushing Cerrone up against the cage to land some elbows and dirty boxing. If and when the fight hits the ground, it’s anyone’s game. Both are tried and tested submission artists who could potentially end this fight in an instant.

Both have also shown that can be submitted despite their own offensive grappling skills. It’s going to take an elite effort to get that job done here. It’s close, but I’m picking Miller to score a second round submission after a back-and forth affair.

Rory Kernaghan: Donald Cerrone and Jim Miller meet in a battle of true veterans and warriors, and one that I’m having a hard time separating. To cut through the BS, I feel that this fight is down to which ‘Cowboy’ turns up. We’ve seen the absolute best of Cerrone in the past when he submitted Edson Barboza and Evan Dunham, or his incredible head kick knockouts of Adriano Martins and Melvin Guillard.

What we have also seen is a gun shy ‘Cowboy’ getting blasted by Anthony Pettis, Nate Diaz and Rafael dos Anjos. If Miller is able to implement his aggressive style on Cerrone, it could be a long night for the WEC veteran. Personally, I think Cerrone is over his troubles now, and the Jackson’s MMA product will dominate proceedings. Look for ‘Cowboy’ to have his hand raised after a bloody third round TKO.

Brian Cox: This is a tough fight to call. Donald Cerrone has the skills to beat any fighter in the lightweight division. He has dynamic stand-up, T/KO power, and an outstanding ground game. Additionally, he has great conditioning, exhibits a high Octagon IQ, and has a ton of backbone in a fight. In short, he has everything that it takes to be the lightweight champion. If “The Cowboy” has one chink in his armor, it might be that (occasionally) he can be a little too cavalier with his opponents.

For his part, Jim Miller is a worker. He doesn’t have Cerrone’s dynamism on the feet, but he more than makes up for it with his aggressiveness and iron jaw. On the ground, Miller is a beast and is not a fighter that most would want to engage on the mat. To win the fight, I think Miller needs to get it to the ground, but I think “Cowboy” will prove to hard to take down and control. As such, I think Cerrone’s greater (technical) stand-up will rule the day. I’m picking Donald Cerrone by way of second round KO.