Featherweight Fireworks? UFC Fresno Preview, Breakdown & Analysis

Although it may not be receiving as much attention as some of the promotion’s recent pay-per-view (PPV) events, UFC Fight Night 123, which is set to take place this Saturday (Dec. 9, 2017) from Fresno, California, boasts a solid lineup of fights that could certainly provide fight fans with an enjoyable night of action.

In the main event, longtime featherweight contender Cub Swanson is set to take on the surging Brian Ortega in a five-round affair. The co-main event, on the other hand, will feature another 145-pound bout between Jason Knight and Gabriel Benitez. Also on the main card, top bantamweights Marlon Moraes and Aljamain Sterling will do battle.

Without further ado, let’s take a deeper look into the event’s marquee fights:

Cub Swanson vs. Brian Ortega

Swanson has long been one of the featherweight division’s most recognizable and most adored fighters, and for good reason.

Currently ranked No. 4 in the 145-pound rankings, Swanson has won 10 UFC bouts, has come dangerously close to earning a title shot multiple times, and is currently riding a four-fight win streak that includes victories over Hacran Dias, Tatsuya Kawajiri, Doo Hoo Choi, and Artem Lobov.

As far as his fighting style goes, Swanson rarely fails to put on an entertaining fight. In fact, his bouts against Choi and Lobov are two of the best fights we’ve seen over the last 12 months.

One of the best pure boxers in the division, “Killer” Cub moves well while putting together crisp and accurate combinations. He’s also not afraid to take risks and has some finishing ability, as four of his UFC victories have come by way of TKO.

It’s important to note, however, that five of Swanson’s seven career losses have come by way of submission, and that’s exactly the area in which Ortega excels.

The 26-year-old dubbed “T-City” entered the UFC just over three years ago and he’s put together a 4-0-1 record including two victories by way of T/KO and two victories by way of submission. The no contest was also originally a submission win for Ortega, but it was overturned after he failed a drug test.

Although he possesses strong submission skills and one of the best guards in the business, Ortega has also improved on the feet. He tends to move forward and pressure his opponents, but he also leaves himself open to counter strikes in the process, which could play to Swanson’s advantage.

Ultimately, I could see this fight going either way. Ortega should look to get the fight to the ground and if he can land a submission or catch Swanson in a scramble, he could finish the fight. However, I’m not sure that’s the most likely outcome.

I expect Swanson to take his time figuring out Ortega before working his boxing and setting the type of pace he wants. “Killer” Cub is no stranger to five round fights and I think his experience will be the difference maker here.

Prediction: Cub Swanson def. Brian Ortega via unanimous decision

Jason Knight vs. Gabriel Benitez

In another exciting featherweight bout that seems to be flying under the radar, Knight, a young and relentless pressure fighter will meet Benitez, an improving southpaw striker and a The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): Latin America alumni.

After losing his UFC debut to Tatsuya Kawajiri in 2015, Knight rattled off four straight victories over the likes of Jim Alers, Dan Hooker, Alex Caceras and Chas Skelly, finishing Caceras with a submission and Skelly with a TKO, while proving to be an exciting fighter in the process.

His winning streak was halted by veteran contender Ricardo Lamas this past July, but at 25 years of age, Knight has a ton of talent and a ton of upside.

Using high-volume striking, forward pressure, and a slick ground game, Knight, a rangy competitor, is a tough out for anyone in the division. He can, however, be hit, and that’s likely where Benitez will find his best chance at scoring a victory.

Since moving to the famed American Kickboxing Academy (AKA) in San Jose, California, Benitez has improved his striking. He possesses power and likes to use his left round kick as well his left cross. However, he’s just 3-2 in the UFC, suffering a stoppage defeat to Andre Fili in 2015 and a decision defeat to Enrique Barzola in his most recent fight this past May.

In the end, I’m not sure Benitez will be able to hang with Knight. I feel as if Knight will use his pressure and striking to hit Benitez before finishing the fight on the canvas.

Prediction: Jason Knight def. Gabriel Benitez via second-round submission

Marlon Moraes vs. Aljamain Sterling

Prior to signing with the UFC earlier this year, Moraes had established himself as one of the best bantamweights competing outside of the Octagon, as he racked up 12 consecutive victories while defending his WSOF title five consecutive times.

Despite facing off with lesser ranked competition, the Brazilian scored seven finishes in that stretch, showcasing fight ending power and a vicious arsenal of leg kicks. Two of those finishes also came by way of submission.

His UFC tenure thus far, however, has been lackluster, to say the least. His promotional debut ended in a closely fought split-decision loss to Raphael Assuncao. He then followed that up with an impressive, but once again closely fought split-decision victory over John Dodson this past July.

Sterling, on the other hand, has established himself as a contender since entering the UFC in 2014. He’s compiled a 6-2 Octagon record with three of those victories coming by way of stoppage, but he’s come up short when matched against the division’s elite, dropping decisions to Bryan Caraway and Raphael Assuncao.

Nevertheless, the Long Island native uses a unique striking style and a strong submission game backed by a collegiate wrestling background. On the feet, Sterling likes to move forward and unlike most fighters, he likes to kick more often than punch and he uses his kicks to set up his punches. He has, however, improved his boxing, which he showcased in his last fight, soundly defeating former champion Renan Barao.

It’ll be interesting to see if Sterling will be able to successfully use his kicks in this bout, as Moraes is a dangerous kicker in his own right. Despite his mediocre UFC start, the Brazilian is a high-level fighter, and I expect him to use his jab to keep Sterling away before he attempts to unload his vicious Muay Thai.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see this fight go either way, but I’m leaning towards “The Funkmaster”. He may not be able to submit Moraes, but he should look to land the takedown, which will be no easy task, and control his opponent in order to land effective ground and pound.

Prediction: Aljamain Sterling def. Marlon Moraes via unanimous decision