UFC Atlantic City Preview, Breakdown & Analysis

After hosting an event in Arizona last weekend, the UFC will head back to the east coast tomorrow night (April 21, 2018), as UFC Fight Night 128 is set to take place live on Fox Sports 1 from the Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey.

In the main event, No. 5-ranked lightweight contender Edson Barboza and will face off with No. 6 Kevin Lee in a five-round affair. The co-main event, meanwhile, will play host to a rematch between former 155-pound champion Frankie Edgar and longtime 145-pound contender Cub Swanson.

Also on the main card, heavyweights Justin Willis and Chase Sherman will do battle in a potentially under-the-radar slugfest.

Without further ado, let’s take a deeper look into UFC Fight Night 128’s marquee fights:

Edson Barboza vs. Kevin Lee

UFC Fight Night 128’s main event will play host to a pivotal bout between two of the world’s best lightweights, both of whom are coming off losses and in need of a victory.

Barboza, arguably the very best striker in the division, is coming off of a one-sided loss to current 155-pound champion Khabib Nurmagomedov. Prior to that, however, he had won three straight fights.

Stylistically, Barboza’s bread and butter has always been his striking. Utilizing a vicious Muay Thai approach, Barboza possesses some of the best kicks in the sport. Whether he’s kicking to the leg, throwing spinning kicks, or firing off switch kicks, the Brazilian kicks with incredible speed and power.

It is important to note, however, that he has improved his boxing and footwork quite a bit since making the move to New Jersey to train under Mark Henry. And it’s safe to say that he’ll have the advantage in this category over Lee.

In terms of grappling, Barboza has seemed to continuously improve his takedown defense in recent years and it’ll need to be on point in this bout. Lee may not be a wrestler the caliber of Nurmagomedov, but “The Eagle” repeatedly took Barboza down in their UFC 219 bout, paving a path to victory for fellow lightweights.

On the ground, Barboza rarely finds himself in positions to be submitted, as he’s only been submitted twice through 24 matches. He also owns a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. If he ends up on his back though, he’ll need to smart defensively to avoid Lee’s ground-and-pound.

“The Motown Phenom”, meanwhile, is coming off of a loss to Tony Ferguson for the interim title last October. Prior to that, he had won five consecutive fights with four of those victories coming by way of stoppage.

Stylistically, Lee isn’t primarily known for his striking skillset, but he has improved his boxing in recent memory. Showing improved footwork and defense, Lee is also a phenomenal athlete and an explosive fighter. I’m not sure striking with Barboza would be his best option, though.

In terms of grappling, Lee is a high-level wrestler. In addition to his NCAA Division II wrestling background, Lee’s power, size and physical strength aid him in this category and I feel he’ll have a sizable wrestling advantage over Barboza.

“The Motown Phenom” also has eight submission wins to his credit, as he has a knack for taking an opponent’s back and finding a choke. Barboza is tough to submit, but Lee may have the advantage in this department as well.

Ultimately, I’d give Barboza the advantage in the striking department and Lee the advantage in the grappling department, which leads me to believe that whichever fighter implements his game plan best will come out on top.

It’s important to note that Lee actually missed weight for the fight, so it’s unclear if a difficult weight cut took place, but I’m going to side with him regardless. I feel as if he’ll be able to use his strength, power, and wrestling to ground and control Barboza. I’m not sure he’ll be able to submit the Brazilian, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him score a stoppage via strikes.

Prediction: Kevin Lee def. Edson Barboza via fourth-round TKO

Frankie Edgar vs. Cub Swanson

This co-main event will feature a rematch between two seasoned veterans of the fight game.

Edgar and Swanson first squared off back in 2014 at UFC Fight Night 57 where “The Answer” dominated Swanson for the majority of five rounds before scoring a submission victory with just seconds remaining in the fight.

Since then, Edgar has gone 4-2, although he’s coming off of a vicious knockout loss to Brian Ortega just last month at UFC 222 in Las Vegas. Despite recently suffering the first stoppage loss of his lengthy career, Edgar remains one of the best in the business.

On the feet, Edgar has made a career off of implementing a high volume approach and utilizing a relentless pace. Typically, “The Answer” likes to circle his opponents while looking for angles before darting in-and-out of the pocket to fire off combinations.

Edgar’s chin has always been one of his best assets, but as we saw in his last bout, he can be exposed.

With an NCAA Division I wrestling background, Edgar not only has strong takedowns, but he’s fantastic at transitioning between his striking and his wrestling, which can throw opponents off. And on the ground, he owns a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and four submission wins to his credit while having never been submitted himself.

Swanson, meanwhile, will also be looking to bounce back from a loss. Since facing Edgar, he’s also gone 4-2 and is also coming off of a loss to Ortega.

On the feet, Swanson is an offensive threat with a wide arsenal of dangerous weapons. His boxing has always been amongst the best in the division, as puts together solids combinations, while also attacking both the head and body well with crisp punches.

Swanson also likes to use various kicks, although that could leave him open to takedowns in this bout.

In terms of grappling, Swanson was indeed taken down multiple times by Edgar throughout their first fight, but his defensive wrestling has improved quite a bit since then. He too is also a BJJ black belt, although I still feel as if Edgar is the superior fighter in this category.

While I didn’t necessarily expect this rematch to take place at this time, I’m intrigued by it and there are a few x-factors to note.

First off, it’s unclear how Edgar will look after suffering such a brutal stoppage defeat less than two months ago. Secondly, it’ll be interesting to see how the fight plays out if Swanson can keep it standing.

For me though, I’m going to side with Edgar. His recent loss was concerning, but I feel as if he still has a lot left in the tank.

Prediction: Frankie Edgar def. Cub Swanson via unanimous decision

Justin Willis vs. Chase Sherman

In this main card bout, we have a match-up between two rising heavyweights.

The 30-year-old Willis is 6-1 in his professional career thus far and hasn’t suffered a loss since his debut. He’s also 2-0 in the UFC and is coming off of a knockout victory over Allen Crowder this past December.

A former NCAA football player, Willis is athletic and has consistently improved his skills training out of the famed American Kickboxing Academy in San Jose, California.

He has shown solid wrestling skills and, as a long southpaw, has appeared to continuously polish his striking skillset.

Sherman, meanwhile, is the more experienced fighter, possessing an 11-4 professional record. Currently, he’s just 2-3 in the UFC though with two of his three losses coming by way of stoppage. Although he’s an entertaining competitor, Sherman has struggled in the Octagon thus far.

Prior to entering the UFC, he had put together a string of T/KO victories, but that success hasn’t seemed to transfer too well. He certainly possesses fight-ending power, but he has appeared to have a lot of holes in his game defensively, which have cost him.

Ultimately, I feel as if Willis is the smarter and quite possibly the more talented fighter at this stage of both fighters’ careers. He may be able to pick apart Sherman, but I also feel as if he’ll have the wrestling advantage.

Prediction: Justin Willis def. Chase Sherman via unanimous decision