UFC 244: Nate Diaz vs. Jorge Masvidal Odds and Matchup

The quest for the BMF Belt was almost shut down last Thursday when Nate Diaz ‘tested positive’ for elevated levels of SARMS.

However, even Jorge Masvidal didn’t buy into the USADA’s claims that Diaz was doping. He responded to Nate Diaz’s tweet telling the world that he was most likely out of the event with a positive message for Nate and a blast to the face of the USADA.

“You not the baddest mofo in the game (i am) but you are one of the cleanest mofo’s @NateDiaz209 I’ll see you nov 2. I know your name is clean. I don’t need @usantidoping to tell me s***!” Masvidal tweeted. – Gamebred

Kamaru Usman immediately put his name in the hat to replace Diaz as the alternate headliner, but again Masvidal wasn’t having any of it. He called, Usman out as a ‘Clout-Chaser’ – ‘Cloutchaser.com.’ he told him to, ‘shut the f&^#k up.’ stating that, ‘You wouldn’t fight me on 7 weeks notice; you’re not fighting me on 10 days notice.’ This came at the heels of Usman calling himself a BMF … “I’ll fight in November and December. That’s what a BMF does.”

But it’s looking like Nate is ready to fight in NYC. The USADA claims now that Nate Diaz has been cleared and hasn’t violated any doping policies. So where are the odds at now?

Odds and Matchup

Prior to the doping deal, Jorge Masvidal was as high as -200 on the UFC Odds, bringing Diaz in as a moderately-sized underdog. But, the odds are starting to tilt a bit and Masvidal is down to -185, still a moderate favorite, but in the world of MMA and Boxing, being a +145 dog is not much at all. 

So, the fight is on, and Nate Diaz is the dog. We have to wonder how this doping debacle will affect the fight. Will Nate Diaz walk step into the octagon with an even bigger chip on his shoulder, or will the days of unnecessary stress just a few days before the fight take its toll? 

Connor McGregor predicts that Nate Diaz will win. He takes his hat off to Masvidal’s run, but he thinks that Diaz is in a better space at the moment – after the near cancellation, I’m not sure. The Notorious brought up a good point though, ‘You’ve got to factor that in, what kind of space a fighter is in because everyone’s best on their day. I think Diaz beats him.’

Their styles are a good match-up. Masvidal has some solid wrestling background, but after losing eligibility for poor grades in high school, he started training in MMA. He has good kick boxings and scrappy street-fighting skills. Diaz is a second-degree BJJ black belt and has a corraling style of boxing – both open and closed handed. He likes to herd his opponents around the octagon and trick them into moving into his power hand. 

Masvidal’s biggest advantage is his explosive power. Nate Diaz’s biggest advantage is his gas tank. If Jorge can’t stop the fight in the first few rounds, he could get into trouble in a war of attrition late in the 4th and 5th.