UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor Preview, Prediction & Analysis
The day is finally upon us and the UFC’s biggest fight ever will actually take place in the main event of tonight’s (Sat., October 6, 2018) UFC 229 from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Undefeated lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov will welcome former two-division champ Conor McGregor back to the Octagon. The fight is being billed as the most anticipated of all-time. For once, that hyperbole is definitely not a false narrative.
It’s that huge.
The monstrous title bout involves several unique dynamics at play. The first, obviously, is Khabib and McGregor’s heated rivalry from earlier this year. McGregor infamously threw a metal dolly through a bus containing Nurmagomedov days before April’s UFC 223. He was arrested on assault charges, jailed, and reached a plea deal this summer.
Building on that, McGregor made that rivalry extremely personal in the two media appearances the two did for the fight. He’s attacked Khabib’s father, manager, and reputation with endless below-the-belt jabs. They’ve been so in-depth, it’s tough to know what some of them mean to an average onlooker.
But that’s all expected from the fight game’s most outspoken trash talker. It’s what he does. The buildup is now over, with a heated weigh-in staredown where McGregor tried to kick Khabib putting a final touch on their face-to-face interaction. All that’s left now is the actual fight, finally. And on paper, the bout legitimately presents one of the most interesting head-to-head match-ups in a long time.
Without further ado, check out our final preview, breakdown, and analysis.
Striking:
The fight begins on the feet, and this is obviously McGregor’s glaring area of strength. He’s won an impressive 18 of his 21 total victories by T/KO, including eight of his nine UFC wins.
McGregor brings otherworldy timing, power, and precision on the feet. There’s just no other way around it. The Irish superstar has a full arsenal of kicks, knees, and elbows, but he mostly relies on his left hand to put his foes out. His straight shot with that hand is arguably the most powerful single weapon in all of mixed martial arts, replacing Dan Henderson’s long-feared ‘H-Bomb.’
The former champ is also ultra-smooth on his feet, using a wide-based stance to glide effortlessly around the octagon. He has shown a tendency to gas out, however, so the longer the fight goes, the better it should be for Khabib.
The Dagestani grappler has never been known for his striking. He showcased an effective jab while dominating Al Iaquinta (his fifth prospective opponent) at April’s UFC 223, but “Ragin Al” is no McGregor. While it’s true Khabib has dominated most of his foes in the octagon, it’s also true he can be hit. Michael Johnson proved that in their meeting back at UFC 205.
Suffice to say, the longer this fight stays standing, the more the scales will tip exponentially in McGregor’s favor.
Wrestling/Grappling:
On the flipside of McGregor’s glaring advantage in striking lies Khabib’s cavernous advantage in wrestling and grappling.
The former Combat Sambo champion may be the most dominant grappler in all of MMA, and he could already even be one of the best of all-time. He’s that good. Nurmagomedov’s all-out maulings of Edson Barboza, Johnson, and especially his record-setting decimation of Abel Trujillo prove he is without equal in these two departments.
He effortlessly chains together endless takedown attempts, switching from one variation or another until his foe is on the mat. Once there, he smothers with ground and pound so vicious that he appears to turn into the bear he so famously wrestled as a kid. ‘The Eagle’ can submit his foes with an array of chokes and armlocks such as kimuras, yet he doesn’t have to most of the time.
His onslaught of ground damage has been too much for all of his opponents so far, and McGregor could join that long list of victims if he cannot stay upright.
McGregor isn’t quite the grappling slouch he’s been criticized as being. He claims he’s been wrestling much bigger men in his training camp – “200-pounders,” in fact – but none of those bigger men is Khabib. McGregor was taken down by a short-notice featherweight contender in Chad Mendes back at UFC 189, a major concern for this fight. While McGregor did rebound to TKO Mendes when ‘Money’ gassed, Khabib will most likely not do the same.
He rarely tires and as one of the biggest lightweights on the UFC roster, he’s much bigger and stronger than Mendes. If he can close the distance, take McGregor down and hold him there, a path to an early victory could open up for Nurmagomedov.
Intangibles
It’s no secret that these to elite fighters have a lengthy history and a bad blood-fueled rivalry to prove it.
McGregor has attempted to get into Khabib’s head since the first presser, making it personal with endless barbs aimed at his father and manager. He has noticeably gotten a bit miffed at times, but overall Khabib has kept his cool. The power play he made by walking out of the last pre-fight press conference on Thursday was a genius one.
He never gave McGregor a chance to talk over him and dominate a trash talk session. That’s a fight McGregor will always win. And he has, if for no other reason than the fact that he speaks English fluently while it’s a work in progress for Khabib.
However, you could say that McGregor’s trash talk hasn’t been fueled by a source of hunger like it was in his earlier UFC fights. It does seem like it’s been more to sell his Proper Twelve whiskey and flaunt his massive payday to fight Floyd Mayweather last year rather than getting back the belt he never defended.
‘The Notorious’ seems super confident as always, but we’re going to find out if that confidence is false or not in Las Vegas tonight. Khabib is stoic as always, his focus like that of a cold, calculating Terminator. That doesn’t mean he can’t be caught with Conor’s laser of a left hand and knocked unconscious in minutes. That’s what makes this fight so intriguing, and also partly what makes it the best of all-time.
Anything could happen. In the end, I believe the champion’s world-class wrestling will rule this day.
Prediction: Khabib Nurmagomedov def. Conor McGregor via R2 TKO (ground strikes)
