The Stakes Are Ridiculously High For Conor McGregor At UFC 202

With only a few short hours left until tonight’s (Sat., August 20, 2016) UFC 202 from Las Vegas, Nevada, the MMA world waits with baited breath to see what will happen in the second fight of featherweight champion Conor McGregor’s long, strange rivalry with Nate Diaz.

By now we all know what happened in the first fight at UFC 196, where Diaz filled in for then-lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos on just 11 days’ notice to batter and submit “The Notorious” in the second round after losing the first round to several heavy blows.

But what followed after McGregor showed a surprising amount of humility, honesty, and class at the UFC 196 post-fight presser arguably has the ultra-popular champion fighting for a large chunk of his lofty fighting status. His short ‘retirement’ that ultimately lead to his removal from the originally scheduled rematch with Diaz at UFC 200, coupled with the strange, dangerous bottle-and-can-throwing incident at Wednesday’s pre-fight press conference suggest that Diaz might just be inside McGregor’s head. We’ll find out tonight, but at the end of the day, he just has to win in order to silence his critics.

Yes, he’ll always have the featherweight title he’s never defended, something that UFC President Dana White has gone on record saying he will do in his next bout regardless of what happens with Diaz tonight.

However, two straight losses to a fighter who’s being billed as a welterweight but is, in reality, a lightweight who while no doubt a top contender, has lost to many of the top 155-pound fighters in MMA, would obviously be devastating to the ridiculously lofty bar McGregor has set for himself with his nonstop trash talk. There will be excuses made, but the fact will remain that there just hasn’t ever been a UFC champion who is coming off two losses to the same opponent.

It would also lend McGregor’s frequent stinging tongue lashes much less weight, as it’s hard to get fans to take a fighter seriously who says they’re going to destroy everyone in their path while on a losing streak. Again, the featherweight fray that McGregor has by all accounts dominated since his UFC debut in April 2013 will always be there, but it’s still a matter of whether or not he can actually make that weight safely again. “The Notorious” has put on serious muscle mass for his move up to lightweight and then welterweight, and even his longtime coach John Kavanagh has stated he doesn’t want to see his prized fighter make the draining cut down to 145 again.

Case in point, check out how drained McGregor looks compared to the much more bloated form he was in at UFC 196:

That picture is quite a shocking contrast, and in an era where the health impacts of extreme weight cuts are being taken more and more seriously by the day, it might not be a good look for the sport’s biggest star to put himself through another drastic and taxing cut. The weight issue coupled with the daunting specter of a two-fight losing streak to Diaz not surprisingly makes tonight’s main event a bout with absolutely stratospheric stakes for the Irish superstar, and therefore, it’s a bout he must win.

The fight is also one that carries astronomical stakes for the UFC. With talent agency WME-IMG and their investors recently having bought the UFC for upwards of $4 billion in the midst of the most unpredictable run of title changes in UFC history, the promotion is in serious need of stars. McGregor, along with Ronda Rousey, is obviously their biggest one, so another loss would be devastating for his legitimacy and the new owners’ profit margins. Some rumors have surfaced that WME has already soured on their massive purchase, and while that speculation is just rumor, it wouldn’t be hard to suggest that they may have a serious case of buyers’ remorse were McGregor to lose again and leave them with a long list of champions who absolutely struggle to sell a pay-per-view on their own.

There’s most likely a path to victory for McGregor this evening, but with him predicting a second-round knockout of the iron-chinned Diaz, the high-volume five-round affair that will probably be required might not be what McGregor plans on implementing.

We’ll have to wait and see what transpires in one of the most intriguing MMA fights of the year (and perhaps ever), yet regardless of what goes down from the T-Mobile Arena tonight, the stakes are unquestionably high for McGregor, and in an unprecedented manner never before matched in the relatively young sport of MMA.

The exact same thing could – and should – be said for the UFC and its new owners.