The Lightweight Shift: How UFC On FOX 17 Will Shape 155

Mixed martial arts (MMA) offers ongoing alterations by nature. New fighters rise, old fighters fall, and titles are won and lost.

That’s why we are intrigued by every interchanging nook and cranny. To see these modifications manifest means the system is working.

In the UFC, MMA’s undisputed champion of promotions, this predetermined fluctuation is heightened exponentially. Due in part to an exceeding number of roster sports, the organization offers the possibility of monumental shifts.

At UFC on FOX 17 on Dec. 19, the UFC’s lightweight division is going to undergo one of these inevitable evolutionary transformations, one way or the other.

With current champion Rafael dos Anjos set to defend his title for the first time opposite surging Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone, and top contender Michael Johnson scheduled to ward off perennial threat Nate Diaz, the 155-pound class will undoubtedly look different entering 2016.

Here’s how one of the deepest and most competitive weight classes in MMA will be reshaped and refined in one single night.

1) The Johnson Effect

Like most cases with bad judging, the UFC is well aware that Michael Johnson should have been rewarded a decision victory over Beneil Dariush back at UFC Fight Night 73. So while a loss doesn’t look good on his resume, Johnson’s previous four-fight win streak is not being overlooked.

But in order to regain the title aspirations that drove him to the cusp of the division’s elite just a few months ago, “The Menace” must debunk the pressure cooking Nate Diaz at UFC on FOX 17.

Having already defeated the likes of current top contenders Edson Barboza and Tony Ferguson, who will compete against one another at The Ultimate Fighter Season 22 Finale on Dec. 11, Johnson will have a lot to hold over the top of the weight class should he get past Diaz.

If Johnson is unable to defeat the rangy striker, then his vacant spot as the next up-and-coming title contender could be handed over to the likes of Dariush, Al Iaquinta, or the winner of Dustin Poirier vs. Joseph Duffy.

2) The Diaz Effect

Nate Diaz is long removed from defeating Takanori Gomi, Donald Cerrone, and Jim Miller in succession prior to his championship bout with Benson Henderson back at UFC on FOX 5 in December 2012.

The 30-year-old antagonistic brawler has showcased a strained skill set of late, losing three out of his last four, including a knockout defeat to Josh Thomson and a one-sided beatdown at the hands of current champion dos Anjos.

Still, Diaz remains a lightweight name capable of scaling the divisional ladder quicker than almost anyone, especially considering he is only ranked No. 14 coming into his bout opposite Johnson at UFC on FOX 17. That leaves the Stockton native with countless possibilities should he claim victory over an evolved “Menace.”

The effect that a Diaz win would have on the division would be fairly significant. His proven track record, appetite to compete, and ability to draw the best of out his opponents could land him a fight with a top 5 lightweight in 2016 and nobody would bat an eye.

3) The Cerrone Effect

The time has come for Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone to strap on his No. 1 contender boots and finally battle for UFC gold. He will be taking on champion Rafael dos Anjos at UFC on FOX 17 in an effort to reward himself for an ultra-impressive eight-fight win streak.

Having competed against nearly every top fighter in the division, with the exception of Khabib Nurmagomedov, Tony Ferguson, and Michael Johnson, Cerrone may in fact possess the most potential to overhaul the look of the lightweight division entering 2016.

Should he defeat a fighter who previously beat him via decision at UFC Fight Night 27, the everlasting effect would be felt all the way down the 155-pound chain. Whether it be creating a potential grudge match with former champion Anthony Pettis, slamming the door on Eddie Alvarez‘s title hopes, or creating a longer journey back to contention for Barboza, “Cowboy” will have the best hand to play should he dethrone RDA.

Of course, and this may be the most interesting point to this entire outlook, Cerrone winning could eventually open the door for a cross-divisional showdown with current interim UFC featherweight champion Conor McGregor (who may or may not be the undisputed 145-pound king entering 2016).

4) The RDA Effect

There’s no disputing the evolution of Rafael dos Anjos as one of the most complete fighters at 155 pounds. But even though the 31-year-old Brazilian is the UFC lightweight champion, he doesn’t bring as much to the table as other potential suitors.

This is not a knock on his skill, but more so his ability to create worthwhile matchups. As it stands today, considering many people aren’t too intrigued to see a rematch between him and Anthony Pettis, Khabib Nurmagomedov is the only true fight that RDA can sell. The two met back at UFC on FOX 11, which saw the Russian capture a decision victory over the current champ on the heels of six takedowns.

While there is no wishing that dos Anjos will lose to Cerrone at UFC on FOX 17, having him hand over the belt to a significantly more popular fighter with greater marketability wouldn’t be a bad thing in the eyes of the promotion. This would allow for a Cerrone vs. McGregor superfight somewhere in 2016. Dos Anjos and McGregor have shared words along the way, but nothing to the tune of what the Irishman and “Cowboy” have spat at one another over the past few months.

But if the champion is able to fend off Cerrone on Dec. 19, it wouldn’t be all that bad when it comes to the lightweight landscape. Guys like Eddie Alvarez, Michael Johnson, Edson Barboza, and Tony Ferguson, are all rising threats that have never met the Brazilian inside of the Octagon, allowing the UFC to capitalize and build off one of those names.

So while an RDA title retention would have an effect on the roster heading into the new year, it may not pack the same punch compared to that of Cerrone.