The Landscape of UFC’s Welterweight Division
There’s no denying that Kamaru Usman is the most authoritative UFC champion of present; no other men’s division has an advocate with as many title defenses (4). But to become the welterweight GOAT, he needs to achieve another six consecutive victories to surpass the record set by George Saint Pierre.
Historically, the UFC welterweight division has been a weight class where the title holders have boasted a dominant reign. The likes of George Saint Pierre, Tyron Woodley, Matt Hughes, and Pat Miletich all defended their welterweight crown on four occasions at the very least. And in 2021, the current champion Kamaru Usman is one title defense away from surpassing the magic number 4, but how do his chances of overtaking GSP with 9 defenses look?
Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington II
As the betting odds for Usman versus Colby II suggest (-300), the reigning champion is heavily favoured with a 75% chance of defeating his adversary.
This will be the second straight rematch for Usman (19-1), facing an opponent he overshadowed during their first encounter. Firstly, Jorge Masvidal earned his rematch but was quickly disposed of thanks to a right cross in round 2. The outcome came as a surprise to most, as the wrestler was expected to take care of Masvidal by utilizing his elite wrestling base. But an ever-evolving stand-up game proved worthy against one of the divisions most decorated strikers.
Now, Covington will have his opportunity to seek revenge on the Nigerian native; the two will run it back at UFC 268 on November 6th at Madison Square Garden.
Taking a deeper dive into the first fight, the extensive wrestling backgrounds of both men were cancelled out, as neither attempted a takedown. This resulted in a slugfest, and to Covington’s credit, he remained the busier striker, with 395 significant strikes to Usman’s 360. The first round was probably scored for Covington, but his success didn’t last long. Usman’s longevity and efficiency was the deciding factor, as he out-landed the challenger with a 175-143 margin. Usman landed the only two knockdowns of the fight and was evidently the more powerful fighter. Oh, and he broke Covington’s jaw that led up to an eventual fifth-round TKO stoppage.
Covington has undoubtedly given Usman the best fight of his championship reign, but even then, his cardio and solid chin were utterly outclassed by Usman.
Of course, Covington has been talking smack since the loss. And now the rematch is scheduled; he’s continued to insult the man who broke his jaw. Each to their own, but many critics agree the rematch won’t deliver a different outcome.
Who Can Challenge Usman for The Welterweight Strap?
Let’s be transparent here; the UFC is booking Usman with an opponent he’s already defeated because Covington is a big-name rival for their champion. Considering the facts, Usman has already conquered the number 1, 2, 3, and 6th ranked welterweights. Making a case for a title opportunity is difficult when the champ has already punished the most deserving.
At this point, the UFC will be booking Usman rematches with the same opponents until 2030; he’s that damn good. It’s going to take an exceptionally well-versed wrestler with some extreme strength and perhaps an excellent striking base before Usman can be dethroned.
However, a few names do stand out, including the recently victorious Vincente Luque.
Vincente Luque (21-7-1)
29-year-old Vincente Luque is riding a four-fight winning streak and a submission finish against one of the divisions most formidable Jiu-Jitsu technicians in Michael Chiesa.
Luque is the only top-5 ranked welterweight who’s on a winning streak that Usman hasn’t already faced and could well be line for a title shot.
With that said, Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson is the 2nd top-5 welterweight that Usman hasn’t faced, and he delivered Luque his previous loss. The difference-maker being, Thompson is coming off a loss to the number 2 ranked Gilbert Burns.
As you can see, it’s a burdensome situation for UFC matchmakers. You can make multiple arguments for an array of top-10 fighters, including the pride of England, Leon Edwards.
Sure, Edwards took a unanimous decision loss to Usman six years ago, but Usman wasn’t the champion. Since then, Edwards has amassed the most impressive win streak of any top-ranked welterweight with nine victories.
Outside Welterweight Challengers
To wrap up this complicated division, we can venture outside of the top-10 rankings and visualize a handful of prospects who could be potential threats to Usman.
Firstly, #15 ranked Muslim Salikhov is on a five-fight win streak and is 5-1 since joining the UFC in 2017. A diverse set of skills in grappling and striking could be a challenge for Usman, but he’s yet to be tested by a highly ranked opponent.
Last of all, Khamzat Chimaev. The undefeated martial artist broke the top-20 rankings within his first three UFC bouts, finishing them all via submission or knockout. The Russian-born standout has stolen fans’ hearts, and his lifelong background in wrestling could well be the deciding factor for the current champion. Impressively, Chimaev won two UFC bouts within ten days – in two different weight classes!
With that said, he has challenges to overcome before he can stake his claim at Kamaru Usman
