Main Event Preview: Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas II – Will the Rematch go the Same Way?

The 2025 calendar year of UFC begins this Saturday, January 11th, at The Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The highly anticipated start of the 2025 fight year begins with a rematch of ranked Women in the Strawweight Division. The #6 ranked Strawweight, Mackenzie Dern (14-5 pro, 9-5 UFC) is seeking revenge in the rematch that dates back 5 years. She faces off against the #9 ranked Strawweight in Amanda Ribas (13-5 pro, 7-4 UFC) who won a unanimous decision taking all three rounds unanimously the first go around.

Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas II

This highly anticipated bout was expected to occur last month at the final event of 2024, UFC Tampa in the co-main event. The bout was rescheduled to bring in the New Year as the main event on ESPN+.  The intrigue is deserved with both women having many traits in common:

• Both women represent Brazil
• They are each 2-3 in their last 5 fights
• They both hold black belts in Brazilian jiu-jitsu
• Amanda Ribas and Mackenzie Dern have both competed at Flyweight, but have settled in at Strawweight
• They each hold 5 professional MMA losses
• Each woman is 31 years of age

Despite this, the adage “rematches never play out the same” will be tested. But first, let’s discuss how the first matchup transpired.

Amanda Ribas vs. Mackenzie Dern 1

Amanda Ribas won across all three judges’ scorecards 30-27. She dominated on the feet with a strong set of straight punches and defensively sound grappling. Ribas remained calm and did not get sucked into Dern’s takedown attempts. Dern did land some shots when she was able to move forward, but by the end of the fight, it was clear she wanted to get the fight to the ground.

When the scorecards were announced, nobody was surprised. Both women showed sportsmanship and have improved massively since.

Mackenzie Dern for one, was coming off having a child a few months prior. This certainly impacted her cardio. Additionally, her most recent fight was at a catchweight of 123 pounds, and she had a handful of fights above the 115-pound limit before entering the UFC; she was still transitioning into a natural 115-pound fighter in the UFC at this time. Since that fight, Dern has worked on her striking, and in her most recent bout against Loopy Godinez, Mackenzie Dern put on a great performance using her striking and grappling to get the best of Godinez.

For Amanda Ribas, she has grown her game as well. In their first matchup, Ribas was a very good range striker with great Judo and Jiu-Jitsu. She was able to counter Dern’s attempted takedowns and maintain strong top control. Ribas also was able to control the striking range with very tight-knit counterstriking. Since then, we’ve seen her incorporate more kicks and a lot more stance switches into her striking. All this combined with her high level of grappling that she can fall back on.

So, who wins this fight this time around?

How Mackenzie Dern Wins

For Mackenzie Dern to win this fight in the rematch she should take a lot from Ribas’ matchup with Maycee Barber on UFC Jacksonville. In this fight, Ribas found loads of success. Where Dern should take lessons from was her success in tight quarters with a violent barrage of elbows and knees.

Additionally, she needs to take her down. In the first matchup, she was not able to chain takedowns and was selling out for her single leg; she even tried to pull guard. If she can chain her takedowns, Dern can win minutes on the ground as Ribas loves to play off her back and will roll for crazy submissions like the leg lock. The black belt, Dern, would feel at home on the ground with Ribas if she could be in top position.

The other note to take away is that she needs to be ready for a dog fight. Barber cut Amanda Ribas early in the fight with an elbow and then received a cut of her own in the second round before getting the stoppage. Dern needs to bring the pressure and consistently be on the gas pedal. It is hard to break Ribas as proven by her five-round war with Rose Namajunas but, this will be key for Mackenzie Dern to find a different result in this matchup.

Lastly, her best way of finding success is by countering Ribas as she gets wild. Despite being a very smart and patient fighter, she tends to go for big moves. Whether it is a judo throw or a spinning kick, these are opportunities for Dern to beat her to positions by catching her off balance. She will often sell out for her big moves, and this can lead to opportunities for Dern to win minutes. Catching Amanda Ribas in transition will be essential for Mackenzie Dern to get the fight under her control.

How Amanda Ribas Wins

For Amanda Ribas to win this fight, she needs to follow a similar game plan to her last fight. Recently, we have seen her get more creative with her striking in recent fights. She should stick to her game plan from the last fight which included being a patient counter striker and sticking and moving with her jab. Despite being comfortable on the ground and having a black belt in her own right, Mackenzie Dern has high-level grappling and can catch her in transition.

If she does go to the ground, she needs to stay smart; like the last time they fought. She should exert a lot of belly-to-belly pressure. In addition, she needs to move quickly in transition and not sell out for any submissions. When Ribas looks for ground and pound, she should stay tight and utilize elbows and short strikes, so she does not provide Mackenzie Dern with an opportunity to grab a limb. If these do not work, she should allow Dern to stand back up and continue to utilize her striking.

The key for Ribas is to not get brought into a brawl. If she can control where the fight takes place, she will win this fight similarly to their first encounter. Her striking gets better each fight so Amanda Ribas should rely on her long weapons and continuously look to control the cage.

Final Verdict

There is a lot more at play in this rematch. As both women have turned the corner at the age of 30, they both are running out of time to make a title run. Despite both seeing losses of late, it has been against a very high level of competition and a win in this matchup should earn them a fight vs a top 5 opponent next.

With all factors considered, it seems clear that the adage “rematches never play out the same” will be false in this matchup. Ribas can compete with Mackenzie Dern everywhere as proven in her recent fights as well as their first encounter. For Ribas, she can win on the ground if she is in top control and will win the striking when they are standing.

Dern has sneaky power in her hands and a slick grappling game. Ribas will need to be careful when she counters Dern’s grappling and cannot get caught but, if that does not occur. This fight will likely play out the same way it did in October 2019.

Although it should be anticipated that Dern’s cardio, striking, and wrestling have improved; Ribas has improved as well. They both have strong coaches in their corner, but Ribas has more continuity in her corner. Ribas also recently went five rounds whereas Dern has not in her last 3 bouts.

Prediction: Amanda Ribas by Unanimous Decision (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)