LowKick.com UFC 131 Community Predictions
Hello again everyone, and welcome to another edition LOWKICK PICKS! HunterB has set the tone in the past two articles with 6 correct picks, and I have some catching up to do with 4. We got some great additions this week in the form of Lowkick vets David Saucier, dray12, and HollywoodKOs; which should move me even further to the rear.
UFC 131 is the second straight numbered event that’s had it’s main event changed less than two months out. However, this fight probably changed for the better. Not to take anything away from Brock Lesnar (as I’m about too), but Shane Carwin and Junior Dos Santos are two of the most exciting HWs competing in MMA today. Both are strikers that have very different ways of implementing their game plans. JDS is a technical wonder with good foot work, quick hands, and very underrated head movement. His KOs of Gonzaga and Werdum have been some of the most violent in UFC history. Carwin is brute force exemplified. He forces his will on opponents, and when he connects flush guys don’t fall backwards, they drop directly where they were standing. It’s like his massive fist hits a shut off button, and the lights go out. You could really pick any fight from Carwin to show his ability to finish, but the one I will point to is Lesnar. It is a fight he lost, but absolutely torched Lesnar in the first round. He rocked him around the ring, andwas on the verge of stopping him on the ground; the scariest point for me is he really never connected clean. This match-up really is a must see for us keyboard warriors, and casual fans alike.
While the rest of the main card does leave a little to be desired it still showcases a few fights with title implications. Kenny Florian has already been promised a shot at Aldo down the road if he can get by Nunes. Nunes himself holds wins over Rafael Assuncao and Mike Brown on his record so a win over Kenflo in his featherweight debut would get him even closer to a shot at the 145 lb Brazilian phenom. Mark Munoz and Demian Maia have both won their last two fights, and a win for either would get him close if not put him in the top 5.
On to the picks!
Junior Dos Santos vs. Shane Carwin
Hunter B –This match up is one for the ages. They are without a doubt two of the hardest hitting heavy weights that have ever stepped into the octagon. I feel Carwins chin will hold up in the close exchanges, He will rally in the 2nd and take out a winded andfrustrated JDS. This could easily be vice-versa though. Carwin TKO 2
David Saucier –What a toss up here both guys have the ability to KO each other, both haven’t fought for close to about a year. I’m going to go with Shane Carwin for his KO power, his new diet being about 30 lbs lighter, and he has his wrestling which I think is part of his game plan.Carwin TKO 1
dray12 –I’m a little torn on this one to be honest. I feel like if Junior comes into this fight 100% confident and fearless he will take it with relative ease. That being said, not only does Carwin have more ways to win this fight, but he has the experience of coming up just short on his dream. I don’t think he will be able to bully JDS as badly as some might expect, but look for Carwin to come in with a very smart game plan , and an improved conditioning. I’m tempted to say Carwin by decision, but I’ll make as slightly smarter pick and say Carwin finishes this fight at the midway point.Carwin TKO
HollywoodKOs – Carwin- TKO 1
edub – Such a toss up. Technique w/power vs. Power w/technique. Both have great finishing ability. Both are 12-1. Between them they have 26 career fights, in that there is only one decision. The only thing I can really say for certain going into this fight is don’t blink, there will be a finish. My pick is gonna be JDS, because he has the better boxing and gas tank. As Hunter said above this could go either way. Dos Santos TKO 2
Donald Cerrone vs. Vagner Rocha
HunterB –Donald Cerrone will put a Clinic on Rocha. The Cowboy is better in every aspect of their respected MMA games. There is a reason why Cowboy is a 5-1 favorite in this fight on betting lines. Cerrone TKO 2
David Saucier –Donald Cerrone is one of my favorite fighters to watch, I don’t care to much for how he treats people but that’s a different issue. I will admit I can’t recall a whole lot about Rocha from memory without some research. This seems like a fight Cerrone has been given to win. Cerrone Submission 2
dray12 –Cerrone is an extremely well rounded and technical fighter. Rocha’s only shot is a hail mary submission in my opinion, as I expect Cerronne to use his length and striking to control the fight. Cerrone by decision
HollywoodKOs – Cerrone TKO 3
edub-We’re all in agreement here. Rocha was a late replacement, and it seems he’s a little over his head here. Cerrone should pick him apart on his way to a landslide victory.Cerrone TKO 2
HunterB –Kenny Florian‘s first fight at 145 is going to be a tough one. Nunes is 16-1 against a few respected and established feather weights. This isn’t new to him, and i feel the weight cut is going to play a huge factor in the outcome. Ken Flo isn’t going to be finished but he is going to lose. Nunes Decision.
David Saucier –I have been flipping back and forth on this fight the most. We have Florian who is debuting at Feather Weight, and has fought the who’s who of the Light Weight division who is very well wounded, and can finish fights. The same can be said about Nunes who trains at Team Black House, and his last win was over former WEC Feather Weight champ Mike Brown, but he lacks the resume that Florian has. The deciding factor was Florian stating the he was going to wear a Boston Bruins jersey when he walks to the cage in Vancouver. Florian Decision
dray12 – This is a very dangerous fight for Kenflo and up until not long ago I was leaning towards Nunes. However, I expect Nunes to be a little caught up in the moment, while the more experienced Kenflo will use that to his advantage and dictate the pace of the fight. Nunes will be hard to finish though, and this one could be tight. Florian Decision
HollywoodKOs – Nunes Decision
edub – Each time Kenny has dropped a weight class he has been downright dominant. In his first fight at 170 after TUF he gashed up Alex Karalexis’s nose. In his first fight at 155 after two at 170 he absolutely obliterated Sam Stout. Nunes is a tough guy, and has (questionable) wins over Brown and Assuncao, the problem I see here is neither of those guys are on Kenny’s level. The only problem I see Kenny having here is the weight cut, and he is smart enough to do it without problems. I see him dominating and grabbing a RNC to finish Diego. Florian Submission 2
HunterB –Classic wrestler vs jiu jitsumatch up. I think Munoz’ collegiate wrestling background will be too much to allow Demian to get him on his back. I expect Munoz to capitalize on a winded Maia in the second. Munoz TKO 2
David Saucier –Another tough fight to pick Maia is the best grappler arguably in the UFC, Munoz is one of the strongest wrestlers esp. at Middle Weight. Munoz will have the advantage on the feet, and will dictate where this fight takes place. If he take Maia down it a question of weather or not he can avoid the submission. Munoz late TKO or Dec
dray12 –Another close matchup and it will be very interesting to see what each guys gameplan is. I feel like technically Maia’s stand-up is good enough to avoid Munoz’s power andif the fight stays standing Maia will have the advantage there. If Munoz does takes the fight to the ground, I can’t see him grinding out a decision or getting a finish with Maia’s submissions and sweeping ability. Maia Decision
HollywoodKOs – Maia Submission 2
edub – I think Munoz is the better wrestler andstriker, while Maia has the advantage on the ground. Mark hits like a truck, but has technique that lacks at certain points. Maia, while coming from a BJJ background, has some very underrated take-downs. I see Maia Munoz off guard at some point andgetting the fight to the ground. Maia Submission 2
Jon Olav Einemo vs. Dave Herman
HunterB – I don’t know much about Jon Olav Einemo. That being said I am going with what I do. Herman is young, fast, athletic, and hits like a freight train. I also feel as if he is smart enough to not let this fight hit the mat. Herman TKO 2
David Saucier – I don’t know much about either guy as far as seeing them fight. I know Einemohas a very extensive grappling background, and has been training at Team Golden Glory for awhile now. Einemo Submission 1
dray12 –This is my candidate for fight of the night. Two relatively unknown but very skilled fighters. The biggest advantage here goes to JOE in my opinion. He’s been training and improving alongside great fighters at Team Golden Glory, andPeewee will have to go all the way back to 2006 to find fight footage on him. Peewee has overwhelmed most of his opponents with his furious and reckless pace plus power, but I look for JOE to avoid the early blitz while using a more technical approach to put Peewee away in the later rounds.Einemo Submission
HollywoodKOs – Einemo Submission 3
edub – 4 years. That is the amount of time Einemo has spent outside of fighting. Training with Golden Glory is outstanding. They have some of the best combat athletes in the world. However, training does not equal fighting. Herman is insanely athletic for a big man, but has poor cardio. I don’t see this making it to the later rounds. Herman TKO 1
Photo: Francis Specker
