What Are UFC 188’s Best Value Bets?

This Saturday night (June 13, 2015) the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will return to Mexico with the blockbuster UFC 188 pay-per-view (PPV) from the Arena Ciudad de Mexico in Mexico City.

The card features the long-awaited return of UFC heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez, who will seek to unify the belts against streaking interim champion Fabricio Werdum. Despite being out of the cage for nearly 20 months with various debilitating injuries, Velasquez and his pressure-heavy style are still big betting favorites to handily defeat Werdum.

That dynamic makes the main event a tough fight to bet on this weekend (unless you’re picking Werdum, that is), but there are some under-the-radar bouts that do present some attractive odds courtesy of SportsBookReview.com. Let’s take a look at some of the best potential wagers for this Saturday’s card:

1.) Yair Rodriguez (+190) vs. Charles Rosa (-230):

This featherweight undoubtedly bout presents an opportunity for some decent value. American Top Team (ATT) product Rosa has more experience and a gaudier record at 10-1 with seven submissions, but hometown favorite and The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) Latin America featherweight winner Rodriguez could definitely surprise. A recent training partner of newly crowned UFC light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier, ‘DC’ insists that Rodriguez has the skills to steal the show in Mexico. As a Taekwondo black belt who’s never been submitted, Rodriguez presents excellent value at -190. Rosa will be tough to put away, however, so that’s why a +290 wager via Sports Book Review on Rodriguez to win by decision is an extremely attractive proposal. Get All Odds…

2.) Cathal Pendred (+140) vs. Augusto Montano (-160):

TUF 19 competitor Pendred has won three straight in the Octagon since making his promotional debut at UFC Fight Night 46 last July. They haven’t been the most exciting wins, and his most recent win over Sean Spencer may have come with some controversy, but Pendred does bring an impressive 11-fight unbeaten streak into the bout. He’ll also bring in the motivation of some recent criticism from Octagon commentator Joe Rogan. Montano is a tough competitor who won his UFC debut over Chris Heatherly at UFC 180, but he’s facing a noted step up in competition here. Expect the grinding Pendred to neutralize ‘Dodger’s’ slick stand-up skills for the most part, using a heavy dose of clinch work to pick up a hard-fought win. A Pendred by decision prop bet at +350 from Sports Book Review is another enticing bet this weekend.Get All Odds…

3.) Gabriel Benitez (+215) vs. Clay Collard (-255):

This is a close bout that could present some solid value if Benitez can ride the home field advantage to a big win. Collard has looked solid enough in his two UFC bouts, beating Alex White by decision after getting stopped by top contender Max Holloway. But with eight of his wins coming by knockout against a fighter who’s never been knocked out, he could be at a disadvantage here. Collard has also lost two of his five total losses by submission, and Benitez has picked up nine of his 17 wins by tapout. That translates into a somewhat favorable skill match-up for Benitez, and if the Mexican crowd can inspire him to rise to the occasion, he presents an excellent value at +215.Get All Odds…

4.) Drew Dober (-155) vs. Efrain Escudero (+135):

The final bet I like at UFC 188 is the only one for a favorite, as I believe Drew Dober will be more than highly motivated to make a statement after his controversial no-tap submission to Leandro Silva at March’s UFC Fight Night 62. Although the result was eventually overturned when the Brazilian Athletic Commission for MMA (CABMMA) ruled the loss a referee mistake, he still has the pent-up aggression of not being able to possibly win that bout. Escudero, on the other hand, is a seasoned veteran who’s exhibited vast inconsistency inside the cage as of late, splitting his last four bouts and losing six out of his past 11. I expect the younger and hungrier Dober to use his smothering wrestling to dominate the Mexican in his home country, making him a strong bet at only a -155 favorite.Get All Odds…

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