Five Reasons The Sage Northcutt Hype Train Will Bounce Back – Or Not

After one of the most frantic, skyrocketing, and some would say, contrived hype trains in UFC history, touted 19-year-old prospect Sage Northcutt saw his momentum come crashing down to a shocking halt when relatively unknown welterweight Bryan Barberena submitted him on the main card of last weekend’s (Saturday, January 230, 2016) UFC on FOX 18 from Newark, New Jersey, with an arm triangle choke that didn’t appear to be quite locked on.

Northcutt promptly received what many viewed as undue hate from many of his fellow fighters; mainly those that were miffed he already earned a pay split of $40,000 to show and $40,000 to win in a time when many of them are struggling to make ends meet.

But the boyishly good-looking ‘Super Sage’ didn’t do himself any favors when he came out and revealed he had a nasty case of strep throat going into the fight, which, whether true or not, just serves to discredit Barberena’s win in an arena that Northcutt just didn’t appear comfortable in.

Regardless of that loss, however, the jury is obviously still out on Northcutt in a major way, and there are some big reasons why he could easily bounce back and become the elite fighter he’s been hyped up as since his UFC debut last October. There are also some reasons why he could end up as the latest failed hype train that perhaps enjoyed some special treatment from the UFC due to his perceived marketability.

Let’s take a look at both sides of the story.

5.) He’s Only 19:

The main stance Northcutt’s supporters have taken in defending all of his post-fight hate is the fact that he’s only 19, and to a certain extent, they’re right.

He’s young, talented, and athletic enough to learn from his mistakes and come back a much better fighter after some time off, and there’s nothing to suggest he won’t do just that as of right now.

His perceived weaknesses could certainly become more glaring in upcoming bouts as he faces better competition in the talented lightweight and welterweight divisions, yet he’ll he be given every opportunity to work on the skills he needs most, which, by the looks of his last two fights, is obviously his ground game.

Time is on Northcutt’s side, and so is the UFC machine. With the right training and tools, there’s no reason to believe he won’t fulfill his potential as he improves, but it’s not going to be easy, as we’ve already seen.

4.) The UFC Threw Too Much At Him Too Fast:

Northcutt is only 19, and his loss to Barberena was his third UFC fight in four months, a pace that not even Donald Cerrone sustains in the Octagon these days.

The promotion was understandably trying to push arguably their biggest up-and-coming star into the limelight, and obviously it backfired in a big way.

While ‘Super Sage’ undoubtedly has some amazingly unique attributes in the form of his flashy sport karate strikes and built-for-the-screen physique, that isn’t going to win you fights against grinding grapplers who want nothing more than to prove the hype is fake.

The UFC also knew Northcutt was sick and let him fight anyway, a testament to their greed and perhaps even an inkling that they put their own success and exposure before the health of one of their fighters.

One has to wonder if letting him fight that night, if he truly had an illness that affected his ability to fend off submissions, was far from worth risking a hype train they had built up to an almost insane level in a few short months.

Northcutt will return, and it’s difficult to see the UFC putting him on such a breakneck schedule when he does.

 

3.) He’s Now Training Full-Time At TriStar:

If he ever wants to compete at the upper echelons of the UFC, Northcutt is going to have to train full-time at a world-class MMA gym, and he declared he’d be moving to Montreal to train with Firas Zahabi’s TriStar in the aftermath of his loss.

There, he’ll train with top UFC names like Georges St. Pierre and Rory Macdonald, among others, and he certainly has the potential to absorb their extensive grappling knowledge and use it in the cage in his upcoming bouts.

He was previously splitting time between TriStar and a Gracie Barra gym in his native Katy, Texas, and that’s just not the formula for sustained success against the best MMA fighters in the world. Barberena was tough, but he’s hardly discussed as an elite mixed martial artist right now. Making the full-time switch to TriStar will undoubtedly work wonders for Northcutt’s all-around development.

These first three reasons are very valid ones for why Northcutt will bounce back strong to fulfill his potential, but there are also a couple that suggest he might not get to the level the UFC already anointed him with. Read on to find out what they are….

2.) Excuses:

Northcutt came out with the statement that his illness affected his ability to fight through Barberena’s loosely applied arm triangle choke due to a serious case of strep throat that had resurfaced three times. Even though that certainly could be a valid one, especially in fighting out of holds where your neck is involved, it’s just a bad look that only serves to discredit Barberena, a fighter who was realistically hand picked by Northcutt.

If he was truly that sick, the UFC shouldn’t have let him fight (Dana White has admitted just that in the aftermath), because the risk wasn’t even close to the reward. But there’s also another aspect of the fight game at risk here, and that’s making Northcutt look like somewhat of an excuse factory.

Definitely not a good look for him this early in his career, because the elite, top-flight UFC fighters have rarely used illness as an excuse for a loss, and they also haven’t been brought up and hyped like Northcutt has.

Perhaps he should have kept his strep throat to himself and given Barberena credit for the win, because if he loses and does it again, he could potentially lose all credibility, and that’s hard to gain back.

Let’s go ahead and take a look at the biggest reason Northcutt’s hype train may potentially not return….

1.) Grappling:

Finally, the biggest reason Northcutt may never fulfill his potential is clearly his overall grappling skill.

Many a flashy striker have fallen prey to the grinding and grueling grappling of the UFC’s best wrestlers, and there was cause for concern for Northcutt in this arena even in his second UFC bout, which he ultimately won. Unknown Cody Pfister took him down and controlled him in the first round before Northcutt turned the tables in the second round with a guillotine, but the seeds of doubt concerning his supposedly unstoppable image were definitely sowed.

Yes, he’s only 19 and he has a ton of time to improve upon his grappling skills, but Anthony Pettis was also a young, flashy, and hyped striker who was built up to be the promotion’s next superstar before he was badly exposed by the takedowns and pressure of Rafael dos Anjos and Eddie Alvarez. That doesn’t necessarily mean that Northcutt will fall to the same kind of trajectory, but it does go to show you that flashy striking won’t get the job done in the UFC by itself.

Northcutt has time on his side, and he has the right team to improve with. But flips, spin kicks, and a positive attitude just aren’t going to be enough to rise to the top of the UFC lightweight division packed full of vicious wrestlers. He deserves some time off to work on his flaws, and we should see a much-improved Northcutt when he gets back in the Octagon later this year.

If that’s enough to regain and capitalize on the already massive hype train the UFC has put him on, only time will tell.