Demian Maia vs. Carlos Condit Fight Preview & Breakdown

In the main event of tonight’s (August 27, 2016) UFC on FOX 21 from Vancouver, Canada, perennial top contenders Demian and Maia will look for another impressive win for their resume as they seek one more title shot.

Let’s break the fight down.

Striking:

This is the largest disparity between the two combatants. Maia uses his striking solely for the purpose of getting into wrestling range. He throws a basic jab-cross combination in order to move forward and when he’s close enough, a takedown attempt is coming soon. He’s never won a fight on the feet and is often outmatched while standing. Obviously Maia is tentative, but he rarely trains striking because he’s so dominant on the mat.

Condit is one of the premier strikers in MMA. The “Natural-Born Killer” weaves a tapestry of elbows, knees, oblique kicks, and more with the basics of boxing and kickboxing. He’s creative and unique. Along with that, Condit always has a good gameplan and movement. He refused to fight the way Nick Diaz wanted to, and this fight is similar. Condit will need to stay on his horse and move laterally to stay out of Maia’s takedown range. Condit also has excellent timing, which could come into play if Maia shoots for a lazy takedown. A knee could end this fight early.

Verdict: 85/15 Condit

Wrestling:

Maia’s wrestling is among the best in MMA. Although he doesn’t possess the explosiveness of Daniel Cormier or Khabib Nurmagomedov, Maia can chain takedown attempts easily. He doesn’t rely on raw power or strength to get the job done, rather using his technique and his intelligence. Though he only completes 31% of his takedowns, he only needs one to potentially finish the fight, or at least win the round. There have been so many times in his career where the fight goes to the ground when he wants it to. I’m certain that he will get Condit to the ground at some point.

Condit will need to look back at his fights against Georges St-Pierre and Johny Hendricks if he wants to succeed against Maia. In both of those fights, Condit used elbows and other strikes to remain active and throw his opponents off their game. Condit never stops working when he’s on his back, usually leading to a scramble. That is what he needs to do to Maia. Forcing him to move or attempt to pass guard is the best way to create an opportunity to get back up.

Verdict: 75/25 Maia

Submissions:

We’ve seen Maia pull off all sorts of nasty submission in the UFC. There’s nothing that he isn’t comfortable attempting but I think it’s most likely that Maia will end up trying to take Condit’s back to sink in a rear-naked choke or a neck crank. Maia seems to excel at chokes from back control and we’ve seen how patient he is. He’ll hand-fight and bide his time until his opponent makes a mistake, and then capitalize.

Though Condit doesn’t have a submission win in the UFC, he’s got 13 in his career and is quite knowledgeable as well. He’s not going to be afraid to try for a guillotine choke or throw his legs up for an armbar or triangle choke. Though Maia is the superior Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner, Condit is no slouch and forcing Maia to defend submissions can give him the opportunity to create scrambles and get back to his feet.

Verdict: 70/30 Maia

Intangibles:

There are two here that deserve mentioning. The first is aggressiveness. Both fighters like to move forward when they’re standing. Maia does it order to get into grappling range. Condit does it to keep pressure and tire out his opponent. I think this plays a little into Maia’s hands. Condit sometimes brawls too much and gets a little wild, which is where Maia will have his best chance to get the fight to the ground.

The second intangible is cardio. We’ve yet to see Condit visibly tired in the octagon. He slowed a bit in the Robbie Lawler fight, but that’s because he was throwing so many strikes over the course of five full rounds. This will be different. At some point, Maia will take Condit down and we all know that Maia is a rug. If and when Condit gets back up, we’ll see just how much Maia can take out of him. Conversely, we’ve seen Maia look very tired in the third round against Matt Brown and Ryan LaFlare. This could pose a problem if Maia doesn’t get an early finish because Condit will definitely show up in the championship rounds.

Verdict: Condit 60/40

Overall, these two fighters are extremely well-matched and will likely put on “Fight of the Night.” I think that Condit will work hard enough on the ground to tire Maia out and capitalize in the later rounds.

Prediction: Condit by 4th round TKO