Bellator 194: Nelson vs. Mitrione Fight Preview & Breakdown

Bellator 194 is set to take place this Friday night (Feb. 16, 2018), and the promotion is bringing a solid lineup of fights to the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut.

In the main event, the second fight of the heavyweight grand prix tournament will take place, as veterans Roy Nelson and Matt Mitrione are set to rematch each other.

The co-main event, meanwhile, will play also play host to a rematch, as lightweight contenders Patricky “Pitbull” Freire and Derek Campos will run back their 2014 contest.

Also on the main card, former light heavyweight champion Liam McGeary will return to action and take on Vadim Nemkov.

Without further ado, let’s take a deeper look into Bellator 194’s top fights:

Roy Nelson vs. Matt Mitrione

It’s been over five years since Nelson and Mitrione first squared off in a fight that ended in a TKO victory for “Big Country” and it’s safe to say that a lot has changed for both men since.

Let’s start with Mitrione, the man many consider to be the favorite to win the entire heavyweight tournament.

Since dropping a loss to Nelson in 2012, Mitrione has improved and evolved quite a bit. He’s compiled a 7-3 record following that fight, and he’s currently riding a three-fight winning streak that includes three stoppages.

Stylistically, Mitrione is primarily a striker and he typically likes to keep his fights on the feet if possible. A former professional football player, he possesses tremendous athleticism, explosive speed, and legitimate fight-ending power.

Fighting out of the southpaw position, Mitrione is the more mobile fighter in this match-up and he likes to use his improved footwork to stick-and-move. His best weapon is likely his left cross, but it’s also important to note that he, at times, has proven to be hittable, as he’s been dropped in two of his last three fights.

Nelson, meanwhile, made his Bellator debut this past September, scoring a decision victory over Javy Ayala at Bellator 183. Prior to that, he had gone just 2-5 to end his UFC tenure, although he does appear to be a bit rejuvenated as of late despite being 41-years-old.

While it may not always seem like it, Nelson is quite a well-rounded fighter. On the feet, much of Nelson’s game involves setting up his famous right hand and hunting for the knockout. He’s seen success with this plan at times, as 14 of his 23 professional victories have come by way of knockout.

And although striking is typically his preferred path to victory, Nelson actually has a solid grappling game as well and he’s reverted back to that skill set in recent years. His wrestling is underrated, although it’ll likely be difficult to land a takedown on Mitrione, who’s been working with the Purdue University wrestling team, and he holds a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.

He hasn’t scored a submission victory since 2006, but Nelson proved in his last fight that he still has the ability to control opponents on the ground and do damage. With that being said, if this fight does indeed end up on the canvas, “Big Country” may have the advantage.

Ultimately, however, I see this fight playing out on the feet and I don’t see it lasting very long.

When it comes to powerful heavyweights trading blows, it’s incredibly difficult to predict an outcome. In this case, Mitrione’s questionable defense and his history of being tagged with big shots concerns me against a knockout artist like Nelson.

However, if he can keep his defense in check, I think it’ll be the explosive power and speed of Mitrione that gets the job done.

Prediction: Matt Mitrione def. Roy Nelson via first-round TKO

Patricky Freire vs. Derek Campos

It was back in 2014 when Friere and Campos first met at Bellator 117 in a bout that ended in a second-round TKO victory for “Pitbull”, and heading into the rematch, the Brazilian is considered by many to be the betting favorite.

Friere, the older brother of Bellator featherweight champion Patricio Freire, has long been considered to be one of the very best fighters on the roster, and he’s proved it time and time again.

In his last two fights, alone, Freire has beaten a former Strikeforce champion in Josh Thomson and a former UFC champion in Benson Henderson. He’s also won four of his last five fights.

Stylistically, “Pitbull” is very well-rounded. He possesses a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, although he more often shows off his striking skills in the cage. A brilliant Muay Thai tactician, Freire possesses power in both hands, but also uses a wide variety of strikes including kicks and knees. His killer instinct is often apparent as well.

In terms of wrestling, the Brazilian is skilled both offensively and defensively and has shown a skillful clinch game throughout his career.

Since losing to “Pitbull”, Campos has gone 5-2 and he’s currently riding a four-fight winning streak that has extended his professional record to 19-6.

The man known as “The Stallion” is also a talented fighter on the feet. He too has brutal knockout power in both of hands, but he uses more of a boxing approach as opposed to Friere’s Muay Thai approach. Looking to put together combinations and land big shots, hooks and uppercuts have been useful weapons for Campos, who has scored six career victories by way of TKO.

Although he’s more of a stand-up fighter, Campos has also showcased his grappling skills at times, as five of his career victories have come by way of submission.

I expect this fight, however, to play out mostly on the feet. Both men have proven to have fight ending power, but I see Freire as the more polished and dangerous fighter. He’s finished Campos before, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him do it again.

Prediction: Patricky Freire def. Derek Camps by second-round TKO

Liam McGeary vs. Vadim Nemkov

In this bout, former light heavyweight champion Liam McGeary will return to the Bellator cage to take on an up-and-coming Russian combatant in Vadim Nemkov.

The 35-year-old McGeary is still considered by some to rank amongst the 10 best 205 pounders in the world, but he’s hit a bit of a rough patch as of late. After winning the Bellator strap with a decision victory over Emmanuel Newton in 2015, he defended it once against Tito Ortiz, but he’s since lost two of his last three, dropping a decision loss to Phil Davis in November 2016 and a stoppage loss to Linton Vassell last May.

Regardless, McGeary remains a tough and well-rounded fighter. Standing at 6’6″tall, McGeary has great length and reach. Also, the Englishman possesses knockout power, as 6 of his 12 career victories have come by way of T/KO.

A brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, McGeary also has a solid grappling game, as five of his career victories have come by way of submission, although he has, at times, had issues dealing with strong wrestlers.

Nemkov, on the other hand, is the much shorter fighter, standing just six feet tall, but he’s proven to be a dangerous fighter on the feet. Possessing an 8-2 professional record, Nemkov has finished seven of his opponents and his last three fights have come by ended via T/KO in the first round.

Due to the styles of both men, I expect this fight to play out primarily on the feet with both men hunting for this finish.

As far as a prediction goes, I’ve gone back-and-forth.

McGeary is the more experienced fighter in terms of the level of competition he’s fought, but he’s struggled a bit as of late and could be declining a bit. Nemkov, on the other hand, however, is riding a wave of momentum and is likely highly confident, although I’d argue that he’s never faced a fighter at the level of McGeary.

Due to that and the fact that McGeary’s never been knocked out, I’m going to side with the Englishman. I’m not sure he’ll finish the fight, but I expect him to use his length to keep Nemkov away while using his well-rounded arsenal when needed.

Prediction: Liam McGeary def. Vadim Nemkov via unanimous decision