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UFC On Fox 9 Gambler Edition: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly
UFC On Fox 9 is just a couple of hours away so it’s time to get your wallets out and win some cash. Headlining the Sacramento card will be a flyweight championship rematch between Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson and Joseph “Joe B-Wan” Benavidez. Top bantamweight contenders Urijah Faber and Michael McDonald will also square off in the main event. The full odds for the card are:
(Odds taken from http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/mixed-martial-arts)
Demetrious Johnson (-145) vs. Joseph Benavidez (+115)
Urijah Faber (-150) vs. Michael McDonald (+120)
Nik Lentz (+525) vs. Chad Mendes (-850)
Mac Danzig (+155) vs. Joe Lauzon (-190)
Ryan LaFlare (-125) vs. Court McGee (-105)
Edson Barboza (-300) vs. Danny Castillo (+230)
Bobby Green (+130) vs. Pat Healy (-160)
Scott Jorgensen (-280) vs. Zach Makovsky (+220)
Roger Bowling (-140) vs. Abel Trujillo (+110)
Cody McKenzie (+220) vs. Sam Stout (-280)
Alp Ozkilic (-250) vs. Darren Uyenoyama (+195)
Faber vs. McDonald
Simply put, I think this is Faber’s fight to lose. He’s the more well rounded fighter and has beaten better competition. McDonald has some great striking and could finish Faber if he connect’s but I don’t think he will get the chance. When it gets to the mat it will be all Faber. I think Faber to win is a safe bet here. Faber to win inside the distance at +220 is very tempting.
Lauzon vs. Danzig
This is a bad match up for Danzig without doubt. Lauzon is very motivated coming in after suffering back to back loses for the first time in his career and will be looking to get the job done here. There isn’t much return at +110 for Lauzon winning inside the distance and Danzig could prove too tough to be put away. So I suggest putting a heavy bet on Lauzon to win.
LaFlare vs. McGee
This fight is LaFlare’s chance to get noticed at welterweight as he takes a big step up in competition in McGee. McGee is a machine and has impressed in his last two performances but he is outmatched everywhere in this fight. LaFlare to win a decision at +160 is the bet I’m going for here.
Jorgensen vs. Makovsky
Jorgensen makes his flyweight debut against late replacement Makovsky, who I’m surprised isn’t more of a heavy underdog. Jorgensen may be 4-4 in his last eight but all his loses have come against top 5 bantamweights. A big bet on Jorgensen to win here should be safe. Jorgensen is also on EVENS to finish inside the distance which is also tempting.
Johnson vs. Benavidez
There is no doubt that these two men are the no. 1 and 2. flyweights in the division. I personally wouldn’t bet on this fight as I think it is too close to call. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Benavidez to out strike “Mighty Mouse” this time around and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Johnson win a decision in similar fashion to their previous fight. To be honest I think this could very well be a draw and I think it’s worth losing 1$ for the risk of $75 back.
Barboza vs. Casillo
Many people think this is an easy fight for Barboza but I think they are very mistaken. Castillo is a very talented fighter and should have a big advantage in the grappling department. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a highlight reel K.O from Barboza but Castillo is not worth betting against. To be honest I think Castillo to win a decision at +350 are good odds.
Green vs. Healy
I think bar the main event this is the second closest fight on the card and for that reason I would avoid betting on an outright winner. One bet I think is worth the punt however, is under 2.5 rounds which currently sits at +150.
McKenzie vs. Stout
While I do think Stout is a better well rounded fighter, I also think this fight is a lot closer than the odds makers have it. I would avoid betting anything on Stout as I think McKenzie could well pull off another McKenzitine submission win. If you think McKenzie could too, you may want to put a small bet on him to win inside the distance at +375. A bet which is also worth the punt is for the fight to go the distance which sits at +140.
Lentz vs. Mendes
Lentz is the heavy underdog here, and for good reason as Mendes has looked like the Terminator recently, but I think everyone is writing him off all too easily here. Lentz is no pushover and if he can get Mendes up against the cage he could very well grind out a decision win. I think if you want to place a bet on this one your money should go on over 2.5 rounds which currently sits at EVENS but I would avoid any bets.
Here are my accumulator picks.
Lauzon to win inside distance + Jorgensen to win
Faber to win + LaFlare to win
Healy to win + Lauzon to win + Faber to win
Underdog special if you are feeling lucky:
Johnson to win + Castillo to win + McKenzie to win
And finally my bonus picks:
Fight of the night – Green vs. Healy
Knockout of the night – Benavidez
Submission of the night – Lauzon