UFC 162: Does Chris Weidman Really Have As Good A Chance As People Think?

It’s fight week, and the UFC 162 main event between Anderson Silva and Chris Weidman is already the most talked-about bout of 2013, by far. Fans and media alike have gone back and forth over and again about both sides of the coin, and many of the pros asked about the winner chose Weidman. The general consensus seems to be that Chris Weidman is the most well-rounded and dangerous opponent Anderson Silva will have faced to this point, and that could result in the middleweight title finally changing hands.

But then again, Silva has been presented with many a fighter who were deemed to be his toughest challenge ever. I’ve heard a lot of people, including Weidman himself, repeatedly cite Silva’s one-sided near loss against Chael Sonnen at UFC 117 as a testament to wrestling being ‘The Spider’s’ kryptonite. While Sonnen had great success with his ground-and-pound that night, he ultimately succumbed to a late triangle choke, joining the illustrious club of wrestlers who took Anderson Silva down only to be finished (Dan Henderson and Travis Lutter being the other two).

Sonnen also failed the post-fight drug test with T:E ratios of nearly 17-to-1 of a normal man. I think that he put in a very valiant effort and nearly ground out a title-clinching win, but an influx of testosterone that high has to give you a big advantage. I know that Silva said he had a broken rib, but injured or not, it’s going to be tough to deal with the takedowns of a world-class wrestler that strong.

But Weidman isn’t Sonnen. He may have better MMA wrestling, and he definitely has better submission skills and defense. Weidman truly has the game to give any middleweight in the UFC fits. I also doubt he’ll risk the biggest opportunity of his life to have an advantage in the T:E department.  He is already a huge middleweight who maintains a good strength and size advantage on his opponents come fight time. These are all important factors this weekend, and they are legitimate reasons for many to pick Weidman to shock the world. I can’t deny that. However, there are also some other factors to consider when gauging the bout, and they are factors that don’t favor Weidman so strongly. First, he is coming off a yearlong layoff due to shoulder surgery. I would think that it’s a tough prospect facing any top ten fighter in the UFC after that hiatus, let alone the greatest of all time.

Second, Weidman just hasn’t faced too much top competition. I know Mark Munoz was supposedly healed from his own injuries prior to his brutal loss to Weidman, but we all saw what Munoz went through after that bout. While he’s back in shape to face Tim Boestch, I refuse to believe that we saw even close to the best Mark Munoz that night. He was taken down so easily for a former Oklahoma State wrestling standout. And true, Weidman did beat former title challenger Demian Maia on short notice, but that was before made a return to his BJJ roots and a drop down to welterweight.

Last but not least, Weidman’s very supportive head coach Matt Serra will not be able to corner Weidman at UFC 162 due to complications involving blood clots. While this may not have an effect on the performance of the seemingly mentally tough Weidman, it could end up being adverse. Serra is the man who got Weidman his start, the guy who first believed that the young prospect could be champion.

I can’t deny that Weidman brings a unique skillset to the Octagon, coupled with a mental mindset that seems to just refuse to lose. He hasn’t been beaten yet, so I think he may genuinely have a lot less fear that some of Silva’s previous opponents. However, I also think that there are some detractors for Weidman that people are talking about a lot less than how his wrestling will finally be the skillset to take Silva down.

Is Weidman perhaps overconfident? He has done countless interviews describing his perceived victory over Silva, and he’s dissected that win from many points of his own personal view. Ring rust may or may not be a factor, and Weidman may be good enough on the ground to out-grapple Silva. Ultimately, I think just about everything that could be discussed about this fight has been brought up by now, and we will just have to wait and see what transpires this weekend. I just don’t think it’s Chris Weidman’s time to be champion quite yet. Do you?



34 Comments

  1. Profile photo of N.C.

    N.C.

    July 1, 2013 at 1:22 pm

    I want to say yes. But if I was betting money. NO.

    Chris Weidman is new. So there is a chance his lack of experience might not let Spiders Jedi hand tricks phase him. But odds are his lack of experience may let both the main event spot and pressure get to him. Going in, Anderson is very awkward to fight.

    But this is the fight game, upsets happen. It's what makes it fun. You can be the best in the world. But one blind punch can make ANYBODY champion if they find their mark and have the courage to take the challenge.

    • Profile photo of borealis1972

      borealis1972

      July 1, 2013 at 7:53 pm

      If Weidman can hang in the cage for more than 2 rounds with Silva, overcome the jitters and gain enough confidence to use all his tools and implement his game plan, I don't see why he wouldn't upset the champ…Everyone thought Fedor would dismantle Werdum, and we saw what happened. NO one is undefeated in this sport…Not even the Spider himself (Sonner was "inches" from dethroning him after all)…Plus, Weidman is –at least on paper–better than Silva in the wrestling department…The outcome rests on how well he will be able to match the striking magic of the middle weight king…

    • Profile photo of Entity

      Entity

      July 1, 2013 at 8:42 pm

      Just dont bet a lot, they payout might be pretty good since no-one gets good odds against the Spider.

    • Profile photo of chael4president1

      chael4president1

      July 1, 2013 at 9:36 pm

      17 to 1 is incorrect on Chael's T levels the night of the first Silva fight. In the actual hearing that Chael went to before the athletic commission. They stated multiple times that they will never know what his levels were on the night of the fight. The test he took that night only showed man made testosterone in his system. It wasn't tested for the ratio. And it was too late by the time they got results, to test it a different way.

      • Profile photo of chael4president1

        chael4president1

        July 1, 2013 at 9:40 pm

        So many people go with whatever the first article was, that talked about Chael being in trouble. He was only suspended for failing to document he was on TRT on the pre fight question sheet. People will apparently always just go with the first thing they hear I suppose. As long as other people are also going with that story. Anyone that watched the hearing live on the internet would know this stuff. Chael has made mistakes, but his fire that night was fueled more than anything, by the knowledge he was losing his political career. And that he was about to be charged with the whole thing involved with the real estate company that employed him.

      • Profile photo of falcon4917

        falcon4917

        July 1, 2013 at 11:18 pm

        So then chances are it was probably higher.

  2. Profile photo of greeneyeleo

    greeneyeleo

    July 1, 2013 at 1:40 pm

    I totally agree with the above post: If I had to put money down (more than $20), I'd say Chris is toast. He's never been in the cage with a guy like Anderson. It's a freak of nature gift that Anderson has in the striking department. I don't think we'll ever see his striking prowess ever again. Anything is possible in a fight, but Silva is probably going to toy with him for a round (to keep the main event *somewhat* interesting) and then destroy him. Besides Jones, who on Earth is left to give Silva a real challenge? It's a shame that Machida won't fight him- that would be an awesome fight!

  3. Profile photo of HATEOCRACY

    HATEOCRACY

    July 1, 2013 at 3:18 pm

    I know Silva is also known as Mr.Humble but after he puts Baby Fael P. Jr out of comish, he needs to call out Safety P for all that male jocking & reckless talk.

  4. Profile photo of watermelon fresh

    watermelon fresh

    July 1, 2013 at 3:50 pm

    NO – This is going to be a lopsided title fight with A silva doing the matrix.

  5. Profile photo of timbo613

    timbo613

    July 1, 2013 at 3:56 pm

    His striking is way to overrated and I have seen better wrestler's but if he does get top position he'll have a great chance for submission. I think this fight will end quickly if his striking is the same as the Munoz fight because getting in the pocket with Silva is a lot different than any other fighter.

  6. Profile photo of TheRealDeal

    TheRealDeal

    July 1, 2013 at 4:26 pm

    Has as good a chance as anybody…..doesn't mean he will win. Man vs. man, anything can happen…..Silva will lose eventually.

  7. Profile photo of fightgame

    fightgame

    July 1, 2013 at 4:48 pm

    Short answer: no. The guy hasn't fought in a while and Silva is as dominant as ever. Weidman has also run his mouth more than usual which means he is nervous. Quite frankly his chances don't look too great.

  8. Profile photo of NCapone

    NCapone

    July 1, 2013 at 6:27 pm

    Although Weidman looks very impressive and is 9-0, he hasnt faced anyone even remotley close to the level of Silva. As Rogan will say in the post fight interview with Weidman, he is young and has a bright future , and this is a great learning experience for him, but Silva is just too good and experienced for the Weidman. I personally think there isnt, and will never be a fighter in the middle weight division that can defeat Silva and he will retire the g.o.a.t

  9. Profile photo of highkick12

    highkick12

    July 1, 2013 at 7:19 pm

    I sure hope he doesnt, Weidman might be good but hes not anywhere close to as entertaining a fighter as Anderson is.

  10. Profile photo of sapoloco232

    sapoloco232

    July 1, 2013 at 7:20 pm

    I DO NOT THINK WEIDMAN CAN DO IT. HE IS OVER RATED. CAN WAIT TO SEE HIM GET KTFO. WEAK ME NOW SATURDAY YOU PAY.

  11. Profile photo of enjoylife321

    enjoylife321

    July 1, 2013 at 8:20 pm

    Once Anderson settles into this fight and figures out Weidman's timing, hands will drop, counters will lands, and doctor's torches will be shined.

  12. Profile photo of enjoylife321

    enjoylife321

    July 2, 2013 at 12:54 am

    Sunday 7th July-All invited, Free BBQ followed by counselling session for Weidman fans.

    serving Main: soggy ribs with Cauliflower ears

    Counselling session: Speaker 1 topic :What the FUK just happened.
    Counselling session: Speaker 2 topic :Choosing the best antidepressant
    Counselling session:Speaker 3 topic: How to pretend nothing ever happened
    Counselling session;Speaker 4 topic: Getting ready to hype another middleweight fighter

    Please RSVP at chrisweidmanbeatdowns.com

    Hope to see you all there !

  13. Profile photo of fightgame

    fightgame

    July 2, 2013 at 4:08 am

    It is just the UFC trying to sell the fight to more people. Weidman has the chance of a snowball in hell.

  14. Profile photo of Kevin

    Kevin

    July 2, 2013 at 8:29 am

    I got Anderson on this one. Too long of a layoff for Chris. He'll stay top 5 MW until AS retires.

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