UFC 158 Fight Week: Carlos Condit vs. Johny Hendricks Head-to-Head Breakdown

It’s fight week, and Saturday’s UFC 158 from Montreal will feature a co-main event between Johny Hendricks and Carlos Condit that will have major implications on the 170 lb. division.

Carlos Condit is coming off a 5-round decision loss to current welterweight champ GSP at UFC 154. Hendricks, on the other hand, is on a 5-fight win streak in the UFC.

Many thought that Johny Hendricks would receive the next welterweight title shot, but it seems that his first round destruction of Martin Kampmann at UFC 154 was not enough.

Also noteworthy is that Hendricks was the first man to ever finish Jon Fitch in the UFC. It took ‘Big Rig’ all of 12 seconds to dispatch of Jon Fitch who, at the time, was the #2 ranked welterweight.

I’m not going to waste too much time over-analyzing the styles of these two fighters. Both guys have great striking, although I would give Hendricks the nod in power, and Condit the advantage in technical striking.

Condit holds a brown belt in BJJ, while Hendricks is a NCAA division 1 wrestler. Given that Condit had a hard time against GSP on the ground, and Hendricks likes to bang, I think that this fight will take place predominantly on the feet.

My prediction for the fight

In the first round I expect Hendricks to come out swinging hard. I also expect Condit to use evasive footwork, head movement, and a solid jab to keep Hendricks at a safe distance.

I would expect to see Hendricks trying to close the distance, push Condit against the cage, and cut off the angles of escape for ‘NBK’. I don’t think this will be an easy fight for Condit.

Condit’s main offense is, I think, going to be his defense. Moving away from the power punches of Hendricks is going to be the key for Condit. He needs to keep ‘Big Rig’ off balance, and establish a solid jab/low kick, but also be wary of the takedown.

Towards the end of the first round, Hendricks may tempt fate and take Condit to the ground. I think he may have some success with ground and pound, and change his mindset towards where this fight should take place.

Coming into round 2, I would expect much the same from Condit. Perhaps a few high kicks for good measure. This is where I think Hendricks will capitalize, utilizing his superior wrestling, and scoring some big takedowns.

Look for Hendricks to throw down some serious punishment on the mat, possibly cutting Condit in the process. From here I think it is all down hill for the former title challenger.

Hendricks, in my opinion, is going to gain a dominant position and finish Condit mid-way through round 2. I doubt he will knock Condit out, but I do think his power will be too much. My prediction is the ref stops the fight for the winner by TKO in round 2-Johny Hendricks.

If Hendricks can put in a performance like this on the night, there is no doubt that he should get the winner of GSP/Diaz. Hendricks, in my opinion, should be facing GSP on Saturday night, but that’s another story.

As for Condit, if my prediction comes true I think it will be back to the drawing board. The 28-year-old has a lot of fight in him, and although it will be hard, I think he could make it back to title contention within 3 more fights.

Come Saturday night we could either see a changing of the guard, or the reigning champ prove why he is the best. Whatever the case, the implications of UFC 158 are huge on the welterweight division.

Let us hear your thoughts on the fight below, and stay tuned to Lowkick for more pre-UFC 158 coverage!


15 Comments

  1. Profile photo of KeithFarrell

    KeithFarrell

    March 11, 2013 at 1:37 pm

    I hate this fight because it's basically a lose/lose situation.

    If Condit wins then it kills off one of the most promising and exciting contenders in years for the WW division. It would mark the end of the road to the title shot for Johny, which has been arguably the hardest path someone has ever had to get a UFC title shot, unfairly so.
    Then Condit is right back in the #1 contender spot where he has just left. I would hate to see him get another title shot straight away, IMO he would benefit greatly by taking a few fights first and work to improve his excellent game.

    If Hendricks wins then that puts Condit on a 2 fight losing streak, who is easily a top 3 WW. With the incredible talent in the division like MacDonald, Maia and the other beasts, it's possible Condit could end up on a 3 fight losing streak, something I would hate to see for one of the best fighters out there.

    I am picking Condit to win – he has shown that unlike Kampmann, he is VERY hard to hit, has excellent footwork and is a fast starter. I think he can also put it to Johny in the third round.

    While I hate this match-up for what it does to the division, I also love it as a pure fight fan.
    The #2 and #3 best WWs in the world fighting, who are both renowned for being exciting finishers? Yes please!

    • Profile photo of Brian Cox

      Brian Cox

      March 11, 2013 at 1:52 pm

      @ Keith

      I think you sum up a lot of people's feelings on this fight. However, it is what it is, now and we just have to live with it.

      I really wish Johnny had sat this out and waited for the winner of GSP / Diaz.

    • Profile photo of Bryan Fontez

      Bryan Fontez

      March 11, 2013 at 4:22 pm

      Honestly what ever happens will surely be exciting. I don't see it as a lose/lose. I understand what you're saying but if Condit or Hendricks lose, then so be it, that just means there are better fighters out there.

      At some point, someone will emerge as the #1 contender. If Johnny loses then he obviously didn't want it bad enough. Why should Johnny fight GSP if he can't even get through Condit?

      This fight is a good test for Hendricks and a perfect opportunity for Condit to get right back in there. But either way there's a handful of guys waiting like rabid dogs for their shot. McDonald, Dong Hyun Kim, Maquardt, Saffediene, Maia, Ellenberger, Kampann, the list of potential contenders is insane.

      After reading off that list I think it' also safe to that Welterweight is probably the deepest division in the UFC. No Joke.

      • Profile photo of Baby Ads

        Baby Ads

        March 12, 2013 at 3:55 am

        i think i like the chances of johhnny in this fight and its a must win for him, good thing he didn't wait for gsp and diaz winner, i like his will to be in his mind a must win situation. he must win to fight for the title.

    • Profile photo of IChokePeople

      IChokePeople

      March 11, 2013 at 8:07 pm

      I've stated about 10plank times that Hendricks is the rightful #1. That said I can't wait to see Condit destroy him because I am not at all a fan of his style.

    • Profile photo of mindkontrolle

      mindkontrolle

      March 11, 2013 at 9:51 pm

      @ KFC, you're picking Condit to win even as it is clearly the worst of the two scenarios you posted?

  2. Profile photo of Brian Cox

    Brian Cox

    March 11, 2013 at 1:50 pm

    I think either guy can win this fight. They both have power. Condit is the more well-rounded fighter, Big Rig the stronger wrestler. My guess would be that Condit will employ a similar game-plan, as he did with Diaz. The question will be, can Johny prevent that and force his fight.

    These are two big finishers. I'll go with Condit. I have to figure he's truly motivated to not only get back in the mix, but (also) to not be knocked down The Division ladder.

    It should be a good fight, but I was really looking forward to seeing Condit / MacDonald.

  3. Profile photo of Evan Holober

    Evan Holober

    March 11, 2013 at 2:11 pm

    I see an incredibly close split decision here with Carlos doing a lot of damage late, but Johny winning the first two rounds (with the second being incredibly close).

    Johny wins, and hurts his stock as a title contender in the process. Or Carlos stops him in the second or third.

    • Profile photo of Bryan Fontez

      Bryan Fontez

      March 11, 2013 at 4:24 pm

      I agree. But with the kind of power Hendricks wields, I wouldn't be one bit surprised if he landed a brutal first round Knockout.

      We'll just have to see.

      • Profile photo of Evan Holober

        Evan Holober

        March 11, 2013 at 7:54 pm

        Oh he could, his schedule doesn't line up like that thought.

        His last 8 fights: Martin Kampman (KO), Josh Koscheck (Close decision W), Jon Fitch (KO), Mike Pierce (Close decision W), TJ Waldburger (TKO), Rick Story (Close decision loss), Charlie Brenneman (TKO), TJ Grant (Close decision W)

  4. Profile photo of enjoylife321

    enjoylife321

    March 11, 2013 at 8:01 pm

    I think Condit will win via greg jackson's commentary……

    "quick go get some fans'
    "Show them that you Won"
    " your controlling the fight, your winning this round"
    "he is tired, not landing anthing"
    "one more take down is what we need"

  5. Profile photo of IChokePeople

    IChokePeople

    March 11, 2013 at 8:08 pm

    Condit will finish Hendricks. I know it hasn't been done before but Condit is hungry for a finish and the guy is a killer (no pun meant).

    • Profile photo of thexperience1

      thexperience1

      March 11, 2013 at 10:36 pm

      I see Condit finishing Hendricks too… i think people forgot what kind of SAVAGE Condit really is… sure Johny knocked out some tough competition but Condit is another animal and let's not forget Condit has KO power too… He's never been knocked out and has an outstanding record with 26 finishes! 50/50 Subs and KO's.

  6. Profile photo of Jrhill1990

    Jrhill1990

    March 12, 2013 at 2:03 am

    condit will get tko'd in the 3rd! Hendricks will then go on to have a fight with gsp only to have gsp fake a bad injury and sit out for enough time to have hendricks fight macdonald, macdogg will win gain the interim belt, meanwhile Anderson silva is whipping on Weidman and retains his belt, GSP then miraculously heals again ever too quickly and comes in to fight Anderson..A.S then whips him too sending GSP to retire (as he only has 2 fights left anyways). only to go on and fight jon jones @ 192 in which he tko's him via 1 2 4(jab, straight, knee) in the 4th only to become the single best champion ever. meanwhile Cruz gets stripped becomes a commentator and renan barao becomes the official champion beating Erick Perez leaving him to ove down and take the 125 l belt from mighty mouse…while this is happening JDS makes his 3rd title defense against velasquez who lost the belt a year prior and that would make it their 4th fight.

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