UFC 154: Georges St. Pierre vs. Carlos Condit LowKick.com Staff Predictions

Anton Gurevich: It’s simple (yeah, right). Carlos Condit’s goal is to defend the takedown and keep the fight standing. If GSP fails to put Condit on his back, The Natural Born Killer will be able to do St. Pierre the same thing he did to Nick Diaz – stick and move striking with a laser-sharp accuracy. However, GSP is still a clear favorite in this match-up. He’s extremely well-rounded, and will be ready for any turn of events against Condit. I don’t think we’ll see a new Georges St. Pierre in this fight. The French-Canadian will bring inside the Octagon his trademark gameplan, with takedowns and ground-and-pound. I’ll play it safe and pick GSP to win this fight, but something tells me we’ll see a finish from the champ. GSP via TKO in Round 4.

Bryan Fontez: The less I think about it, the easier it is to say GSP wins easy, but putting more thought into this one is having the complete opposite effect and causing me to seriously doubt whether GSP will be able to bounce back to the same form we’ve seen from him previous. There are many variables in play that make this one of the toughest picks I’ve ever had to make. But at the end of the day, GSP is simply too intelligent to take a fight at anything less than 100%. I say he’s ready and that means a long night of dominance via relentless grinding and takedowns. GSP via Unanimous Decision.

Mike Drahota: The long-awaited return of Georges St-Pierre is a bit of an enigma, in that no one knows what to expect from GSP after a debilitating injury like ACL surgery that resulted in an almost 19-month layoff. It will be interesting to see how much this has affected him, because Carlos Condit may just be one of the toughest opponents he has ever faced. The Welterweight division has been moving rapidly, with many contenders, in GSP’s absence. I would say that even with the injury time off, GSP is good enough athletically to come back and grind out another unanimous decision. But Condit is simply too good, in all aspects of the game. This fight is very intriguing, because anything truly could happen. GSP could come back strong and finish Condit in a blast from the past, or Condit could pull off one of his patented knockouts. This matchup is simply much closer than Silva versus Sonnen or JDS versus Mir, and it has more hype and background than Ben Henderson versus Edgar. I know it’s become cliché, but I have to go with the obvious and pick GSP by decision. If not, we may have a new era at 170 on our hands.

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Azzkika/ azzkika

    Can’t wait for tomorrow night. MMA at its finest. Condit GSP is tough to call. GSP is the smartest fighter ever but Condit has a finishing instinct on a par with Silva. if GSP can’t handle his movement Condit could very well take this and standing Condit could possibly finish GSP, but if Condit can’t stop the takedowns it could be a long night for him and another face GSP will turn to mush. very tough to call but I can’t go against GSP. Several times he’s been against opponents who I thought might trouble him in some aspect of the game and he strategised a way to beat them comfortably so gotta go with GSP.

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Ian/ ian

    No love for Carlos, whats funny is that Anton predicted a TKO for GSP, yeah right.

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Azzkika/ azzkika

    Yup Condit’s just gone favourite with bookies since Anton’s prediction.

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Grandslam/ grandslam

    I’d go with Anton on this one. TKO round 4 for GSP.

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Grapplure/ grapplure

    @anton gsp couldnt finish a sandwich

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Grandslam/ grandslam

    It’s surprising how short lived human memory can be.

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Purinho/ purinho

    Starnge that everyone is cutting Carlos out, I’m a big Gsp fan but something in my gut is telling me that Carlos may pull an upset, I have Anton’s predicion now, that enforces my feeling, just waiting for Couture to pick Gsp and thats it.

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Woodstock/ Woodstock

    its to bad that Kampmann’s last name isnt Florian or he would have had 5 shots at the title by now. he pretty much dominated Condit for 3 rounds when they fought. And now Joe Rogan says whomever wins his fight might move up to the top of the line to fight for the title.

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/UnderdogGreatness/ UnderdogGreatness

    Haha….I had to give you a funny for that comment.

    P.S. I have THE NBK via – TKO – round 2.

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/KeithFarrell/ KeithFarrell

    @Grandslam yea that’s true, BJ Penn, one of the best chins in the history of the sport and extremely tough was finished by GSP

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Grandslam/ grandslam

    Good luck buddy.

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/KeithFarrell/ KeithFarrell

    GSP is the most well rounded fighter in the sport and has been one of the top 3 P4P fighters for years now.
    The big question is how is his knee, was he rushed to return? It’s possible but I doubt it – Georges is a professional and perfectionist in everything he does so I don’t think he would mess up something this serious.
    I expect GSP to be able to take Condit down at will, just like every other opponent he has faced (including wrestling studs) but I believe he is going to stand with him to prove a point.

    Condit is incredibly tough but he can be rocked and knocked down, I wouldn’t be surprised if he see a stoppage ala the second Hughes fight.

    I do think GSP is going to be more of a finisher from now on and take out a lot of opponents but Condit is a beast and not because it’s GSP but I think 99% of fighters can’t stop him.

    GSP by an entertaining yet impressive decision

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/KeithFarrell/ KeithFarrell

    Just like to note Condit can definitely win this, NBK can stop anyone at WW if given the chance but I just think Georges is simply the better fighter.

    People saying that if GSP can’t take him down (very unlikely) then it’s going to be a clear cut stand up clinic by Condit, I’m not sure about that.
    Condit has a much more aggresive, gritty stand up that he uses to pick you apart and knock out at the same time but GSP is easily one of the most technical striker in the sport has beaten up everyone he has faced when deciding to stand.

    Condit is a brilliant Muay Thai striker but don’t think it’s impossible for GSP to out strike the striker.

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Evan-Holober/ Evan Holober

    “he pretty much dominated Condit for 3 rounds when they fought.”

    That might be the dumbest statement on this page. That fight was literally 50-50 going into the decision. Neither fighter was dominant in any aspect, it was a great fight, and either could have taken the nod. Condit did more damage, and Kampman controlled the action more.
    Great back and forth fight.

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Enjoylife321/ enjoylife321

    I have condit winning this fight. He is healthy, mentally strong, evasive on the feet and will be putting the doubt into georges gameplan with repeated leg kicks to the ****y knee.
    George always talks about the best george you have ever seen come ever fight but the reality is he lacks in finishes.
    Condit to win this fight !

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Cranestyle/ cranestyle

    I’d be a big GSP fan even if I wasn’t Canadian. I’ll quote NFL coach Al Davis on this one…”just win, baby.”

    But one thing that has become predictable about GSP is pre-fight banter. “This is the biggest test of my career against the toughest guy I’ve ever fought”, repeat.

    Kind of ironic that this time, it is the biggest test of his career, and Condit could be, in terms of skill set, the toughest guy he’s ever fought.

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Odesahitman/ odesahitman

    The possibility that GSP has had time to review his approach to fighting and come in hungrier and more willing to risk winning the fight doesnt seem to have been discussed.

    Im going to take a contra position and say GSP will have the best fight he has had in years…

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Brian-Cox/ Brian Cox

    I’m picking GSP by dominant performance. He will pick and choose when and where to take Carlos down. I think he will come forward in the fight, control the center of the Octagon and be the aggressor.

    …and still Champion George “Rush” St. Pierre.

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Dropkickmurphy/ dropkickmurphy

    I think it will be very similar to GSP and Penn. Takedowns…knees to the ribs..corner stoppage. But could very easily be completely mistaken. Condit is a dangerous finisher in more than one way.

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Bruce-Lee/ Bruce Lee

    You’re exactly correct. They are both so good it could go either way…

    just a minute…

    …heads: GSP!

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Azzkika/ azzkika

    But Penn GSP was a mismatch. GSP bigger stronger younger better etc. I think if Penn was equal in size GSP wouldn’t have been so dominant.

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Azzkika/ azzkika

    I think since the Serra fight GSP deliberately convinces himself it is the toughest test ever in order not to take any opponent lightly or overlook them in anyway. I agree with you comment, but as far as GSP is concerned it is a good attitude take even if it does get repetitive.

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Cranestyle/ cranestyle

    Agree 100%.

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Teephaw/ teephaw

    How is Condits tdd? He seems a bit unbalanced at times. If Condit won’t be able to stop GSP td its gonna be a hell of boring fight.. :/

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/IChokePeople/ IChokePeople

    One aspect no one seems to be talking about is Condit’s sub game. It is sick. This fight is extremely hard to call though and I don’t think anyone will be surprised if the guy they pick loses. I actually think that GSP will have the advantage in the stand up. His striking gets overlooked these days but it is very, very good. I am calling Condit to win. I think that ring rust is going to play a part in this but I also think that Condit is always looking to finish and will. I see GSP winning the stand up and getting take downs at will but I think Condit will eventually get a sub from his back in the fourth or fifth round.

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/D/ D

    46%. Not even close to good enough to stop GSP’s takedowns.