The Ultimate Fighter Season 18 Finale is only a hours away. TUF 5 cast members, Nate Diaz and Gray Maynard, are set to have their rubber match in the main event. Chris Holdsworth will take on Davey Grant in TUF 18 Finale and Julianna Pena from team Tate will take on team Rousey’s Jessica Rakoczy to determine the first women’s Ultimate fighter winner.
The odds for the full card are:
(Odds taken from http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/mixed-martial-arts)
Gray Maynard (-150) vs. Nate Diaz (+120)
Julianna Pena (-275) vs. Jessica Rakoczy (+215)
Chris Holdsworth(-225) vs. David Grant (+175)
Jessamyn Duke (-230) vs. Peggy Morgan (+180)
Roxanne Modafferi (+275) vs. Raquel Pennington (-365)
Akira Corassini (+155) vs. Maximo Blanco (-190)
Rani Yahya (-135) vs. Tom Niinimaki (+105)
Jared Rosholt (-225) vs. Walt Harris (+175)
Sean Spencer (-210) vs. Drew Dober (+170)
Ryan Benoit (EVEN) vs. Joshua Sampo (-130)
Duke vs. Morgan
The battle of Team Rousey’s giants could be a barnburner in my opinion. Both ladies will want to make a statement after both losing in the elimination round. Duke fought in arguably the greatest fight in women’s history in her loss to Pennington, which was a close fight. While Morgan was quickly submitted in the first round by Sarah Moras. Duke will overall be the more well-rounded opponent and that should get her the win. Duke to win a decision at +150 looks a tasty bet.
Modafferi vs. Pennington
Easy money here. Pennington has looked good in all her performances on TUF but was simply outclassed by Rakoczy. Modafferi on the other hand looked terrible in her loss to Rakoczy unable to hurt her and hold her down. Pennington will just be too big for her opponent and too much for her on the feet. Not much return on Pennington to win at -365 but -130 for her to finish Modafferi is bit more tempting.
Rosholt vs. Harris
The two debuting heavyweights have a combined eleven finishes in fourteen wins and have gone the distance three times in a combined sixteen fights. I doubt this one will go the distance or past the first round. Under 1.5 rounds looks fairly safe and not bad odds at -155. However, If like me you think Harris may pull of the upset, him to win inside the distance at +200 could be your bet.
Dober v Spencer
The debuting Dober is stepping up a weight division for a short notice fight with Spencer. You can’t blame Dober for not turning down the offer to fight in the UFC but really this doesn’t look good for him. Spencer is the bigger stronger man and should get the win here. +240 for Spencer to win inside the distance looks good here.
Diaz v Maynard
I don’t think this fight is worth the risk, both men have one win each, both fights were fairly close; this could really go either way. If you think Diaz will take it the odds on him to win are fairly good, at +300 for Diaz to finish Maynard and +275 for him to win a decision. If Diaz does get the finish it will only be by submission, at +500 that’s not a bad bet.
Pena v Rakoczy
Another close fight on the card. Both women look hungry for the win and both have had impressive performances on the series. Pena is not worth a bet at all at -275. But if you think Rakoczy is going to take it her odds may be worth a punt. The odds for the former boxing champion to finish Pena is +600, which may be worth a small bet.
Holdsworth v Grant
This fight is just really too close to call I think, it should be avoided. Holdsworth is no doubt the better of the two on the ground and his stand up has looked really impressive. Grant however will be hungry for this fight after getting a pass through to the finale. I really wouldn’t like to bet on this fight.
Here are my accumulator picks.
Duke to win + Pennington inside the distance
Spencer inside the distance + Pennington to win
Spencer to win + Duke to win + Pennington inside distance
And finally my bonus picks:
Fight of the Night – Duke v Morgan
Knockout of the Night – Harris
Submission of the Night – Diaz