Predicting A Stacked Card: UFC 173 LowKick MMA Staff Picks

Renan Barao vs. TJ Dillashaw:

Mike Drahota: There’s no doubt in my mind that Dillashaw is one of the best bantamweights in the world and fully deserves a title shot. However, he’ll have to beat the world’s No. 2-ranked pound-for-pound fighter to get the belt, a tall task to say the least. Barao has been running through the best 135-pound talent in the world seemingly with ease, an incredible feat considering you usually just don’t see that in lower weight classes. His lethal mix of size, power, speed, and mat skills make him one of the best, if not the best, in the game.

However, two factors may be working against Barao here: he stepped in to fight earlier than he wanted to, and he’s also been in the news discussing a new contract. Are those distractions enough for Dillashaw to sneak past him? I doubt it. Barao via decision.

Rory Kernaghan: The champion Renan Barao simply has way too much in his arsenal for T.J. Dillashaw. I’m not taking anything away from ‘The Viper’ whatsoever, he is a great fighter, but Barao is just better. It’s that simple for me. He is bigger and just has so many ways to finish a fight, and I believe that he is light years ahead of the bantamweight division as a whole. I predict that Barao will finish the fight by strikes in the first round.

Brian Cox: Renan Barao has no holes in his game that I can see. That’s not to say that he’s not beatable, but it’s going to take an exceptional fighter to do it. TJ Dillashaw is such a fighter. If he beats Barao, no one should be shocked. However, in running up against Barao, Dillashaw will face one of the sport’s elite champions. I see both fighters as being equally matched; however, Barao has it all over Dillashaw in experience. If Dillashaw is to win the fight, his only option is to come out and turn it into war. He needs to invade Barao’s space and set a pace greater than the champ can handle. I believe he has the tools to beat the champ, but lacks the experience. For me, I think Barao is a bar set too high for Dillashaw. As such, I’m picking Renan Barao by way of a unanimous decision victory.

Buster Evans: T.J. Dillashaw is a talented fighter and a bright prospect in the bantamweight division, but let’s face it, he shouldn’t be in there with Renan Barao this early into his career. The champion has the advantage all round and I think Dillashaw is going to be in for a very rough night. Expect the Brazilian champion to go for the kill early, dropping the Team Alpha Male standout before finishing him with a rear naked choke in the first. Barao by submission is my pick.

Daniel Cormier vs. Dan Henderson:

Mike Drahota: I like this fight; it has the potential to be exciting, but let’s be honest. Dan Henderson’s only way to win this fight is with a Hail Mary right hand, and I just don’t see it happening against Cormier. “Hendo” has looked increasingly slow and ineffective in his recent bouts, even in his come-from-behind win over against “Shogun.” His punches are telegraphed, and Cormier has been rapidly improving his stand-up. Both are former Olympic wrestlers, but there’s no way Henderson gets “DC” to the mat. He probably won’t even try. “Hendo” is one of toughest fighters to ever step into the Octagon, so he won’t be finished. But I think Cormier uses his all-around game to secure a clear-cut unanimous decision victory.

Rory Kernaghan: Daniel Cormier vs. Dan Henderson is going one of two ways: Hendo by knockout or Cormier by decision. Either Henderson will uncork that big right hand, or DC will grind out a brutal decision over his weary foe. My opinion? Cormier all the way. I don’t think that he is silly enough to get caught by one of those huge punches; he is much faster than Hendo, and a lot hungrier in my eyes. Cormier takes this by unanimous decision.

Brian Cox: Dan Henderson is a legendary fighter. He might not be the most dynamic athlete, but he’s certainly one of the hardest hitters. He also has one of the best chins in the sport and is fearless in the ring. On the other hand, Daniel Cormier has similar qualities. Cormier has yet to taste defeat and walks into the Octagon with complete disdain for his opponents. He’s a fighter that doesn’t seem to care what his adversary brings to the table. The key to victory for both fighters – as Henderson recently noted – is to not get taken down and to not get out-punched. I think Henderson will have a hard time accomplishing the task; I believe Henderson’s only path to victory is a T/KO from the clinch. Sadly, I don’t think he’ll be able to pull it off. As such, I’m picking Daniel Cormier by way of a unanimous decision victory.

Buster Evans: As much as I love “Hendo”, I don’t see much chance – if any – of him beating Daniel Cormier, who is simply just a bigger, stronger and quicker opponent. Add that to this being Dan Henderson’s first fight without TRT in nearly ten years and you have the recipe for a beating. Henderson can turn any fight around with the “H-Bomb” but I can’t see that happening here. I think Cormier will take him down and earn a TKO in the second.

Robbie Lawler vs. Jake Ellenberger:

Mike Drahota: This is my most anticipated fight of the night and for good reason. Both fighters are have dynamite in their hands, meaning this should turn into a war. However, Lawler has only been knocked out once and appears beyond motivated for the first time in his lengthy MMA career. Ellenberger, on the other hand, has done nothing to justify his lofty No. 5 ranking as of late. His last win was in March 2013 over Nate Marquardt, and that just doesn’t cut it in the UFC welterweight division, which is the most stacked in all of MMA right now. Ellenberger should hold a decided wrestling advantage over Lawler, but I’m not sure he can avoid letting his pride coax him into a slugfest with “Ruthless,” and that could be his undoing. Lawler via second round TKO.

Rory Kernaghan: Robbie Lawler vs. Jake Ellenberger has proved to be the hardest of the three fights for me to pick. On the one hand you have power-punching, speedy ‘Juggernaut’, and on the other you’ve got the resurging veteran with a solid chin and hands of stone. On paper I’d say that Ellenberger could take this fight, but I just think that Lawler has that demeanor around him at the moment, the aura of a guy who is going to win at any cost. It was a hard choice, but I’m taking Lawler with the big first round KO.

Brian Cox: Lawler vs. Ellenberger is a real clash of styles. Lawler is the accomplished stand-up fighter with power, while Ellenberger is more the powerful wrestler and ground fighter. If Lawler can keep the fight standing, which I believe he can, then it’s probably going to be a short night for Ellenberger. However, if Ellenberger comes out from the get-go with the intention of taking Lawler down and beating him on the ground, he could easily take the victory. Lawler has demonstrated that he’s not easily taken down and certainly not easily dominated once there.

For me, this fight is about hunger and self-belief, and which of the pair has more of the two. Lawler is coming off of a championship loss in a fight that he could easily have won. As such, he’s motivated to use Ellenberger to get back into title contention. On the other hand, Ellenberger is coming off of a disappointing performance and loss compounded by a nearly yearlong layoff, and will be looking to achieve the same goals as Lawler. By my view, I believe Lawler will prove to be the more motivated fighter. As such, I’m picking Robbie Lawler by way of a second round TKO.

Buster Evans: Jake Ellenberger vs. Robbie Lawler is a tough fight to call. I’d say “The Juggernaut” has the overall advantage in all-around skill, but you can never count “Ruthless” out. If Ellenberger uses his grappling prowess I can see him taking a decision, however, with him coming back after a lengthy layoff, I’m going with Lawler via split decision. 

Photo: Joe Camporeale for USA TODAY Sports