Nate Diaz and Jim Miller Head-to-Head: Who will win this Saturday?

Jim Miller and Nate Diaz will meet inside the Octagon this weekend, headlining the stacked UFC on FOX 3 fight card at the IZOD Center in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The winner of this fight will put himself in pole position for a shot at the UFC Lightweight title, currently held by Ben Henderson.

Jim Miller comes to this fight with a record of 21-3, losing only to Ben Henderson, Grey Maynard and Frankie Edgar. Diaz is 15-7, fresh off impressive victories over Takanori Gomi and Donad Cerrone.

Here’s a short analysis of this Saturday’s main event match-up. As always, make sure to submit your predictions for UFC on FOX 3 via our events page.

Striking: 60/40 Nate Diaz

Nate Diaz’s striking is what really makes him a force to be reckoned with in the UFC Lightweight division. Diaz has a great timing, and second-to-none ability to pick his opponents apart, making sure he’s always in control of the fight. In my opinion, if Nate Diaz can keep this fight standing, Jim Miller will struggle to find his pace, and will be constantly forced to act as a counter-striker. Still, Miller can absorb a lot of punches, and he’s experienced enough to prevent from Nate Diaz to execute his gameplan, but then again, stand-up battle is Diaz’s to lose.

Wrestling: 65/35 Miller

Taking down Nate Diaz will be Jim Miller’s main goal on Saturday night. Wrestling is Jim Miller’s main strength as a fighter, and Nate Diaz’s main weakness. Nate Diaz is tall and lanky, while Miller is short and muscular – that’s a perfect physical advantage for a wrestler, who will simply enjoy from a low center of gravity. I expect Miller to take down Nate Diaz at will. Wrestling is his world, and he might score some valuable points with ground-and-pound strikes.

Submission Skills: 50/50 Even

Both fighters are well-versed on the ground. There’s a statistical advantage for Jim Miller; Nate Diaz has 10 submission victories on his record, while Jim Miller has 12. Also, Jim Miller was never submitted, while Diaz was armbarred by Hermes Franca back in 2006. But statistics aside, we all know it’s a pretty even BJJ match-up. I feel like they will both nullify each other’s submission skills, unless we see something extraordinary a-la Frank Mir vs. Minotauro Nogueira. However, if Diaz is aggressive off his back, he could prevent from Jim Miller to impose his will via ground and pound. One way or another, we are up for a great fight, LIVE and FREE on FOX.



18 Comments

  1. Profile photo of Woodstock

    Woodstock

    May 3, 2012 at 9:18 pm

    to close to call. i think it will go to a decision.

  2. Profile photo of mauromina

    mauromina

    May 3, 2012 at 9:34 pm

    thats very likely to happen

  3. Profile photo of THF

    THF

    May 3, 2012 at 10:06 pm

    War Diaz !

  4. Profile photo of KeithFarrell

    KeithFarrell

    May 3, 2012 at 11:18 pm

    Real accurate but would maybe give Nate a bit more in the striking and a little more in the wrestling for Miller.

  5. Profile photo of Mike Perryman

    Mike Perryman

    May 3, 2012 at 11:58 pm

    Nice breakdown Anton! Makes these guys seem pretty evenly matched; it would seem on paper that one’s strength is the other’s weekness & vice versa.
    I think Nate will take the win home when it is all over at the end of the night. His striking ability and longer reach will hopefully be enough to keep Nate off his back, and keep Miller at bay all night.
    Should be a heck of a fight no matter who wins.

  6. Profile photo of sambo

    sambo

    May 4, 2012 at 12:08 am

    Diaz tko rd 4 by multiple bitch slaps

  7. Profile photo of GoldenBibi

    GoldenBibi

    May 4, 2012 at 12:20 am

    stand-up battle is Diaz’s to lose. WTF does that mean….

    Nate Diaz will absolutely whoop Miller if the fight keeps standing… Miller only chance is to wrestle Nate Diaz for a long 5 round fight.. Which I believe Miller won’t do… Miller is a pride man, and he will look to test himself by looking for a finish, either by submission, or TKO…

    Yet in my opinion Nate Diaz will beat Miller either by a total domination decision, or by submission. ..War Diaz…

  8. Profile photo of Entity

    Entity

    May 4, 2012 at 1:43 am

    Guessing that Miller will get his takedowns and do some damage to Nate, but I think he’ll get sloppy somewhere and get subbed. OR Nate will out strike him. Either way, I take Nate for the win.

  9. Profile photo of toxic

    toxic

    May 4, 2012 at 2:33 am

    I have hard to see that Miller could take this…
    Nate is better standing and on the ground….
    if Miller wrestles Nate down he is still good from his back….
    However I expect to see fireworks!!! :) :)

  10. Profile photo of D

    D

    May 4, 2012 at 3:05 am

    After seeing him survive the beating that Bendo put on him, I really don’t see Diaz finishing him. I expect Miller to win this fight via decision by outwrestling Diaz.

  11. Profile photo of sambo

    sambo

    May 4, 2012 at 3:58 am

    Has Miller ever gone 5 rounds?

  12. Profile photo of x murderer

    x murderer

    May 4, 2012 at 4:43 am

    Nate’s been fighting pretty much like nick in his last couple of matches. carlos condit has displayed how to beat this kind of fighter…even if its not nessesarily fun to watch.

  13. Profile photo of mma15johnny

    mma15johnny

    May 4, 2012 at 4:58 am

    I see millers striking hanging in there with diaz’s striking, it’s a good fight but I got miller winning this

  14. Profile photo of Mike Perryman

    Mike Perryman

    May 4, 2012 at 7:24 am

    They just need to throw that formula in the trash! It works, but no one wants to pay to see that kind of a fight! That is one of the main reasons that so many boxing fans converted to mma; because boxers stopped fighting and started playing it safe by taking less damage & winning on points. It used to be called fighting for a reason.

  15. Profile photo of ksooner76

    ksooner76

    May 4, 2012 at 10:37 am

    the only way Nate wins the fight is Miller get tired and gives up his neck
    Nate has been here so many times if he loses and is by decision he will
    fallow his brother and everyone is against THEM…..

  16. Profile photo of enjoylife321

    enjoylife321

    May 4, 2012 at 12:15 pm

    Nate Diaz fought brillantly in his last fight against Cerrone, however in the back of my mind, I think about the way he was man handled and completely outwrestled by Rory Mc donald.

    Nate’s record is 5 wins out of his last ten fights…To his credit however all his losses have been by way of decision…

    Jim Miller has only two losses in his last ten fights….plus he boasts 2 KO and submissions within that record….

    I think Miller will win this fight

  17. Profile photo of Edson Barboza

    Edson Barboza

    May 4, 2012 at 12:34 pm

    It’s a tough fight to pick. however, I’m going with Diaz excellent boxing with a mix of black belt in BJJ. Jim Miller is a tough fighter but usually he would submit his opponets if he can’t outstrike them. In this scenatio Jim is against a crafty BBJ black belt with accurate and precise striking so I believe Diaz should pick him appart as he did to Donald Cerrone.

  18. Profile photo of Entity

    Entity

    May 4, 2012 at 4:26 pm

    Nate was out of his weight class when he was fighting at WW. He did ok, but was always over powered. No-one has thrown him around since hes been at LW, Nate doesnt cut weight like a lot of these guys, he loses very little.

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