LowKick.com UFC 128: Shogun vs. Jones Predictions

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UFC Light Heavyweight Title: Mauricio Rua vs. Jon Jones
Top Prediction: Shogun via Round 2 TKO

Anton Gurevich: Jon Jones’ incredible physical abilities will be the main factor in this one. Jones will take the fight to the ground, and gnp his way to glory. Jones via TKO in Round 2.

Ryan Ventura:
Shogun has the experience and has faced the best. Jones is still a baby in this game and I feel his shot has come too soon. Mauricio Rua 2nd round TKO.

Joey Santosus:  Considering the knee surgeries and ring rust, there’s a lot of factors working against the champ in this one.  “Shogun” won’t make it as easy as his previous opponents have, but I do expect to see a passing of the torch on Saturday night.  Jon Jones via 2nd Rnd TKO.

Urijah Faber vs. Eddie Wineland
Top Prediction: Faber via Submission in Round 2

Anton Gurevich: Wineland has a rare knockout power for 135-pound fighter. He’s currently on a very impressive winning streak, and can surely surprise Faber. My pick is Eddie Wineland via TKO in Round 3.

Ryan Ventura:  Faber wants to return in the championship picture and Wineland wants his title shot. Faber comes from a stronger camp has finished a big chunk of his fights via submission. Urijah Faber 3rd Round submission.

Joey Santosus:
Wineland has the type of power that can end things early, but I have to agree with “The California Kid” when he says he is the more complete fighter.  Faber’s comfortable at his new weight and I expect him to avoid being caught long enough to take things to the ground and capitalize on Wineland’s weakness.  Urijah Faber via 2nd Rnd Submission.


Jim Miller vs. Kamal Shalorus

Top Prediction: Miller via Submission in Round 3.


Anton Gurevich:
Jim Miller is a well-rounded Mixed Martial Artist who can finish fights from any given position. However, in light of Shalorus’ strength in wrestling, I believe this one will go to distance. Jim Miller via Decision.

Ryan Ventura:  Jim Miller has been on a hot streak winning six straight and Shalorus is undefeated. However I believe Miller has the better ground game. Jim Miller 2nd round submission.

Joey Santosus: Shalorus is a powerful wrestler, and though he prefers to stand and trade with opponents, his grappling abilities will likely make him a tough match-up for Miller.  With that said, Miller is a crafty veteran and I expect him to outwork the former Olympian to take another step towards title contention.  Jim Miller via Unanimous Decision.

Nate Marquardt vs. Dan Miller

Top Prediction: Marquardt via Decision.

Anton Gurevich: I’m a keen admirer of Nate Marquardt’s abilities. “The Great” will use this fight to bounce back from defeat, and prove he’s a Top 5 Middleweight. Marquardt via TKO in Round 1.

Ryan Ventura: Dan Miller will have the hometown advantage in Jersey has very good ground game. Wrestlers however have been his kryptonite and I think Marquardt could win this bout. Nate Marquardt by Decision.

Joey Santosus: While you have to commend Miller for once again stepping in on short notice, I’m not sure it was wise against an opponent of Marquardt’s caliber.  Miller is as tough as they come, so I expect him to stick around for the duration of the bout, but Marquardt’s striking advantage will likely give him an edge on the judge’s scorecards.  Nate Marquardt via Unanimous Decision.

Brendan Schaub vs. Mirko Cro Cop
Top Prediction: Schaub via TKO in Round 3.

Anton Gurevich: Schaub will be too much for Mirko Cro Cop. “The Hybrid” is an aggressive fighter, and he will not do the PRIDE legend any favors. Schaub via TKO in Round 2.

Ryan Ventura:
If Cro Cop 2006 shows up, Schaub will taste the canvas. However, Schuab seems very motivated going into this fight and I think his youth could play a factor too. Schaub by Decision.

Joey Santosus: As much as I love “Cro Cop,” the truth is he just isn’t what he used to be.  Schaub, on the other hand, has looked impressive as of late, and appears to be developing into a well-rounded fighter. I don’t think he is stupid enough to play it fast and loose against someone as potentially dangerous as Mirko, but Schaub will tire him out and close in for the kill late in the fight. Brendan Schaub via 3rd Rnd TKO.

Photos HT: MMAMania.com


45 Comments

  1. Avatar of kinosis79

    kinosis79

    March 18, 2011 at 5:27 pm

    “Schaub, on the other hand, has looked impressive as of late, and appears to be developing into a well-rounded fighter.” lol, WTF? Since when? All I have ever seen him do is stand up and he isn’t even great at that. He got KO’d by Roy friggin Nelson in the first round and he is the only guy in years that couldn’t KO Gonzaga.

  2. Avatar of kinosis79

    kinosis79

    March 18, 2011 at 5:29 pm

    Out of the guys who beat Gonzaga obviously. And Gonzaga is only 3-5 in his last 8. He was just a 1 hit wonder and hasn’t been in very good shape in a long time.

  3. Avatar of Lowkickdodger

    Lowkickdodger

    March 18, 2011 at 5:37 pm

    @Ryan, Tell Bonnar, vera, hamill…that they got destroyed by a baby lol It must be quite humiliating…They all had more experience that Jones, Matyushenko had 28 fights when he faced Jones and still got his ass babypowdered.

    Now, it comes down to Jones’s ability to use his reach, wrestling effectively without getting overwhelmed by Rua first.
    I think this fight is more about mental than experience, unless it goes to a 5th round war which i doubt.

  4. Avatar of partyboy

    partyboy

    March 18, 2011 at 5:42 pm

    but schaub did dominate him, aswell as every1 else hes fought since the finale…your only as good as your last fight and you can only beat who they put in front of you, so in both those cases schaub is doing quite well, ill be rooting for crocop doh

  5. Avatar of dray12

    dray12

    March 18, 2011 at 6:01 pm

    I hope Shogun starts getting the respect he deserves after he beats another unbeatable opponent.

  6. Avatar of kinosis79

    kinosis79

    March 18, 2011 at 6:10 pm

    He won’t. Newb fans just can’t give respect to anyone who was around before they started watching. If easily destroying Machida didn’t do it, nothing will.

  7. Avatar of kinosis79

    kinosis79

    March 18, 2011 at 6:11 pm

    Bonnar, vera, hamill aren’t that good though. None of those guys you mentioned are top 10 guys, some of them are top 20.

  8. Avatar of kinosis79

    kinosis79

    March 18, 2011 at 6:13 pm

    He dominated a guy who has looked out of shape for a while and coming off being KO a bunch of times, great job.

  9. Avatar of Howardb

    Howardb

    March 18, 2011 at 6:17 pm

    newb fans are better then ignorant biased fans such as ur self

  10. Avatar of rampage68

    rampage68

    March 18, 2011 at 6:27 pm

    i still cant believe people are counting shogun out … he has to much exp copared to jones

  11. Avatar of Lowkickdodger

    Lowkickdodger

    March 18, 2011 at 7:18 pm

    bader was considered top 10 when after he defeated lil nog. Jones never faced someone so dangerous and well rounded and Shogun never faced someone so powerful in terms of wrestling and creative on his feet. This is an interesting fight and biased fans on both sides should realize it.

  12. Avatar of Ryan Ventura

    Ryan Ventura

    March 18, 2011 at 7:45 pm

    All the dudes that were mentioned are no where close to Shogun’s level. But your right, reach and wrestling will play a part.

  13. Avatar of Ryan Ventura

    Ryan Ventura

    March 18, 2011 at 8:31 pm

    Not biased, logic. Shogun has beat the best striker in MMA twice in Alistair Overeem and he knows how to take on elite wrestlers too. Ask Kevin Randleman in his prime and Rampage Jackson.

  14. Avatar of 3RD EYE

    3RD EYE

    March 18, 2011 at 8:39 pm

    Another thing is Gonzaga does not fight to his strengths anymore at all, he hit cro cop wit that kick and forgot all about his ground game. If he would’ve just brought Brenden to the floor he could’ve submitted him. That was an upsetting loss for our camp in Ludlow. I wanna see crocop take this one.

  15. Avatar of Lowkickdodger

    Lowkickdodger

    March 18, 2011 at 8:41 pm

    I was not calling biased personally tho, just some of the fans i hear on the site, all butt hurt cause ppl dare picking jones to win.
    I can ssure you tho that Jones in also on another level than Randleman and rampage in terms of wrestling. This will be confirmed on saturday either jones get caught later on in the fight or not.

  16. Avatar of Anton Gurevich

    Anton Gurevich

    March 18, 2011 at 9:42 pm

    So if Gonzaga lost a few, he’s a bum now? And he can’t fight up to his potential? Yeah, right. It was a great victory for Brendan Schaub, in a very competitive fight.

  17. Avatar of Anton Gurevich

    Anton Gurevich

    March 18, 2011 at 9:46 pm

    It’s crazy how people say Jones never beat a Top 10 competition.

    I mean… who Shogun beat to get his title shot? Liddell? Coleman? Come on. Jones went through everyone had against him. Super experienced fighter like Matyushenko. Brandon Vera, Matt Hamill… and of course Top 10 LHW Ryan Bader. If Ryan Bader is not a Top 10 LHW, I don’t know who is…

  18. Avatar of postmortem

    postmortem

    March 18, 2011 at 9:47 pm

    i really dont see how anyone can call this decisively for either shogun or jones. yes shogun does have more experience but he also has been hot and cold ever since he joined the ufc and has yet to face a fighter that poses the threats that jones does. people also like to make light of jones acheivements while he doesnt have as many names under his belt as shogun he has beat some solid guys impressively . i am going straight 50/50 on this one

  19. Avatar of ian

    ian

    March 18, 2011 at 10:08 pm

    but shogun has faced top 10 comp before, lidell was top 10, jon jones has never faced genuine top ten, i mean bader is good but he was also an up and commer.

  20. Avatar of HATEOCRACY

    HATEOCRACY

    March 18, 2011 at 10:27 pm

    Wasn’t 4 what you call “newb fans” This sport wouldn’t be this big. Can’t knock a person cause they don’t know how tough Rua was six years ago

  21. Avatar of Anton Gurevich

    Anton Gurevich

    March 18, 2011 at 10:29 pm

    Genuine Top 10? What’s that? Come on guys… Ryan Bader was a legit Top 10 fighter. It’s insane how anyone can deny it. Also… it’s not about rankings. Fans have to understand that MMA is not math. It’s also a lot about how you beat your opponents. And man, Jon Jones did it decisively in EVERY FIGHT.

  22. Avatar of TheRealDeal

    TheRealDeal

    March 18, 2011 at 10:38 pm

    How was Bader not top ten? Give me a break. Shogun beat Liddell on his way out too. Did you forget Liddell getting knocked silly in his last fights? Jone’s wins have come against much tougher opponents.

  23. Avatar of TheRealDeal

    TheRealDeal

    March 18, 2011 at 10:44 pm

    Jones- TKO- round 2
    Faber- Submission round 1- by annihilation
    J. Miller- decision
    Marquardt- TKO- round 2
    Schaub- decision

  24. Avatar of slickrick

    slickrick

    March 18, 2011 at 11:02 pm

    I like Jones but his mentality going into this latest fight has annoyed me … signing autographs as “2011 Champion”. C’mon thats disrespectfull in my opinion …. he isn’t the champion till he manages to take the belt from the hands of the mighty Shogun, and that’s gonna be no easy task!

  25. Avatar of moots

    moots

    March 18, 2011 at 11:42 pm

    CC is going to destroy Schaub, mark my words.

  26. Avatar of ian

    ian

    March 18, 2011 at 11:52 pm

    shogun has legacy, and has beat much better opponents than jones throughout his career. He has power he is aggressive he is experienced, has submissions, and his striking is much better than jones jones overrated strikes, and i mean even if you guys say bader was top ten , amybe he was, but on spot number 10, jon jones still had a long way to go to get to the number 1 spot which is rua, im not ruling JJ out since everything can happen in a fight, and maybe rua will come back from his long layoff the way he did against griffin, but i hope JJ gets KTFO.

  27. Avatar of TheMMAfan

    TheMMAfan

    March 19, 2011 at 12:58 am

    true dat

  28. Avatar of TheMMAfan

    TheMMAfan

    March 19, 2011 at 12:59 am

    Jones is talented and a great wrestler, but you cant tell me that beating an unproven ryan bader is going to make me believe hes going to knock out the best of the best lightheavyweights in the world. Get real, like what about guys like rampage, machida, alves, forrest griffen even, rashad evans. I think hes good but this is way to early in his carrer considering he hasnt even been tested with the top fighters in the divison. Shogun VIA TKO

  29. Avatar of TheMMAfan

    TheMMAfan

    March 19, 2011 at 1:01 am

    in my opinion he was BARELY number 10, barely winning out a decision against lil nog was his best fight, other than that hes knocked out keith jardine and some no namers from the ultimate fighter. I sure do see your top 10 logic there.

  30. Avatar of TheMMAfan

    TheMMAfan

    March 19, 2011 at 1:02 am

    You’re telling me putting that on jones’s resume is supposed to make me believe hes going to walk in there and knock out a guy whos fought the best strikers and wrestlers in mma and destroyed them for the past 6 years. LOL ok “chief editor”

  31. Avatar of TheMMAfan

    TheMMAfan

    March 19, 2011 at 1:04 am

    Get off jones’s tip bro, shogun knocked out machida in like 2 minutes. Alistair overeem, rampage jackson first round in his prime. You are so arrogant, jones has beaten a unproven ryan bader

  32. Avatar of Wanderlouie

    Wanderlouie

    March 19, 2011 at 2:40 am

    Shogun beat overeem twice but alistair overeem is not the best striker in mma. lets get serious. not even top 5. hes not better than anderson silva, shogun rua, thiago alves, cung le, dominick cruz or jose aldo. power doesnt make u a good striker. he just has knockout power. but thats besides the point. Im with you ryan on shogun. randleman was a great wrestler whose wrestling was better than jones, mark colemans nickname is the “godfather of ground and pound” whos ground and pound is better than jones, lyoto machida has better striking than jones, rampage jackson has more power than jones and alistair overeem is bigger than shogun by a lot as well. Shoguns has defeated all these guys easily. His experience is why he’ll be prepared for anything Jones brings to the table. However Jones is tricky and no one has showed how to beat him so it will be interesting to see how quickly or even if Shogun can figure him out to win.

  33. Avatar of IChokePeople

    IChokePeople

    March 19, 2011 at 2:55 am

    Bader is no where near top ten. The only guy of note that he beat was Lil Nog and I personally thought Nog edged that out. He is good but top ten means he is one of the TEN best. At LHW he might be top 30.

  34. Avatar of IChokePeople

    IChokePeople

    March 19, 2011 at 3:06 am

    Top 30 Anton. Here is a list of more than 10 guys who are better. Rua, Jones, Lil Nog, Machida, Hendo, Rampage, Randy Couture, Feijao, Mousasi, Mo Lawall, Rashad Evens, Thiago Silva, Forest, Roger Gracie (I know he’s new but he is the Maia of LHW), and maybe even my mom. I agree with you on Jones but Bader is nothing special.

  35. Avatar of IChokePeople

    IChokePeople

    March 19, 2011 at 3:14 am

    I agree with everything you say about Rua but you are dead wrong about Jones. The guy does not have overrated strikes. To pull off the shit he does against any pro fighter is impressive. Bader might not be top ten but he isn’t a bum either. He is a solid upper-mid tier fighter and so are Hammil, Vera and Matyushenko. I actually think that Jones could pull the upset here. Rua is good but Jones has the right strengths to beat him; excellent take downs, excellent ground control and great striking. I am not saying Jones absolutely will win but he has a really good chance.

  36. Avatar of RAZE

    RAZE

    March 19, 2011 at 3:16 am

    WAR SHOGUN !!!!

  37. Avatar of IChokePeople

    IChokePeople

    March 19, 2011 at 3:17 am

    My brain says Cro Cop is all done but for some reason my gut is telling me you are right. I’ve got Cro Cop in the picks at any rate.

  38. Avatar of ian

    ian

    March 19, 2011 at 3:47 am

    yeah but i was talking bout standup, his finishes are on the ground gnp, or sub

  39. Avatar of Gbrl_88

    Gbrl_88

    March 19, 2011 at 3:56 am

    SHOGUN **** HIM UP! SHOW ALL THESE NEW GUYS IN MMA YOU ARE THE BEST 205 IN MMA! AND TOP 5 P4P

  40. Avatar of IChokePeople

    IChokePeople

    March 19, 2011 at 9:05 pm

    True, his finishes are generally gnp but even standing he pulls off some impressive stuff. That spinning back elbow he throws is just sick. You don’t go around pulling that off against professional fighters unless you have some pretty sick stand up.

  41. Avatar of IChokePeople

    IChokePeople

    March 19, 2011 at 9:12 pm

    Shogun is not the best LHW. There is no best LHW. The top guys in that division are so close that on any given day there is a different top guy. That is why no one holds on to the belt for very long. Who is the last guy in the UFC or SF to successfully defend the title more than once? I think it was Chuck Liddell.

  42. Avatar of Warcrazed

    Warcrazed

    March 20, 2011 at 3:22 am

    U do realize how much power roy nelson has in his hands? If he throws his weight into those punches, ur going down. If u watch his fight against JDS, he got completely dominated yet with the few shots he landed, he did some damage to JDS’ face

  43. Avatar of Warcrazed

    Warcrazed

    March 20, 2011 at 3:28 am

    lol it took me like half a year of liking this stuff to get familiar with pride and the old days, give it time.. MMA is just going mainstream.

  44. Avatar of moots

    moots

    March 20, 2011 at 9:08 am

    I officially eat my words, and they taste bad.

  45. Avatar of TheMMAfan

    TheMMAfan

    March 21, 2011 at 9:03 am

    uhm… oops? Although shogun looked very unusual and It was true that he wasnt proven though, but that shit was rediculous. Joey S is a pussy but ill give credit where credits do

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