5 reasons Why Carlos Condit will beat Georges St-Pierre at UFC 154

On Saturday, Carlos Condit will welcome Georges St-Pierre back to the Octagon after being out for over a year with an injury. While GSP has ran though his last few opponents, fighting Condit after being injured will be no fun for the welterweight champion. Truthfully, this is a fight Condit can win and here’s five reasons why.

1. Cage Rust

Look, not every fighter suffers from this but St-Pierre not having a tune up fight before Condit could be a hell of a problem. Condit is a fast starter who isn’t going to allow GSP to find his rhythm. It will be interesting to see if GSP can get into fighting speed quickly and if his conditioning in a high paced fight will hold up. Any other night, we wouldn’t have to worry about these things. But after the surgery and having not fought since April of last year, this has got to be a concern.

2. Devastating Striker

As unmemorable as it was, St-Pierre’s win over Jake Shields was a round away from being a massive upset. It was an unspectacular affair, but if there was one thing to be remembered, it was how many times Shields – an unspectacular striker – landed the jab. By the end of the five round title bout, GSP’s face was marked up. Only an MMA novice would think that Condit and St-Pierre are on the same level with their kickboxing. “The Natural Born Killer” is a savage, as evidenced against Nick Diaz, Dan Hardy, Dong Hyun Kim, Rory MacDonald and others. Now, if Condit can land half as many shots as Shields did against GSP, don’t expect the Canadian to be escaping with the victory. Hell, he could be counting sheep. Speaking of…

3. He’s A Killer

28 wins, 26 finishes. You do the match. Condit holds a ridiculously high finish percentage with 13 coming by way of knockout and the other 13 by submission. Basically, he can beat you any way he feels like it. St-Pierre, on the other hand, is not a killer. Five rounds is a long time to survive against a guy that wants to rip your head off.

4. He’s The Bigger Guy

Standing at 6’2″, Condit is the longer and rangier fighter that uses his length to give opponents a hard time. St-Pierre will have to work around that reach to get that double leg that looks like its shot out of a canon. But if Condit can find his range early in the fight, he’ll definitely give GSP something to think about before shooting.

5. It’s His Time

As cliche as it sounds, it just might be Carlos Condit‘s time to become the true welterweight champion. St-Pierre has held the title since April of 2007 and has done a great job as champion. However, he’s yet to meet a challenger like Condit. The momentum that Condit will be bringing with him on Saturday night could very well spell GSP’s demise. This isn’t to say that St-Pierre is complacent, but it just seems like Condit wants it more.

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Grapplure/ grapplure

    safe-pierre not a killer???……. the man cuddles wit his opponents

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/HotMixed/ HotMixed

    You mean 5 reasons why he could beat gsp?

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Purinho/ purinho

    Your 5 reasons seen from another perspective:
    1. Cage rust
    Gsp is a machine, a frak of nature, his methodical training, athleticism and mind set is second to none, so cage rust will be less of a factor than usually is. Besides this is not like Gsp used to fight 3 times a year before that.
    2.Devastating striker
    Alves, Hardy and BJ were all considered better and more powerfull strikers than Gsp, but yet they didn’t sucede to do any damage when the fight was on the feet, not just that, even on the feet Gsp managed to land more effective strikes than his opponents.
    3.He is a killer
    He did not look like a killer at all against Diaz, it was Condit’s most important fight of his career and he had a far more methodical approach rather than going for the kill, with a game plan to follow from the start to the end, Jackson stile. This fight is even more important, so the odds that the killer may not show up again are pretty big.
    4.He’s the bigger guy
    Condit may be taller, but Gsp uses his karate posture and his jab very effectivly, what creates a lot of distance from the opponents punches, besides that Gsp is the stronger fighter I belive.
    5.It’s his time
    Like Einstein said time is relative.

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Grandslam/ grandslam

    The only way Condit can win is by an accident.

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Cranestyle/ cranestyle

    5 reason GSP will win.

    1. GSP has fought the best of the best.
    Condit has fought some tough guys, and but struggled at times against ones that were well rounded, like Ellenberger and Kaupmann.

    2. Condit has just as much pressure on him.
    GSP is used to this level of pressure. 5 round title fight, main event, title on the line, he’s been doing that for years. Condit has never fought for a real UFC belt. he knows that if he loses to GSP, he isn’t the champion of anything except a footnote.

    3. GSP is stronger.
    Condit may be tall, and quite strong but GSP is a beast. The reach is not much different, so being lanky can be a disadvantage.

    4. Greg Jackson’s absence favors GSP.
    Condit is a decent strategic fighter, and has a great corner, but I think GSP is much better at adapting on his own and making adjustments mid-round.

    5. Because you don’t bet against GSP.
    Condit is almost a 4 to 1 underdog, and against anyone else, I’d be all over that. Not a great 5th reason, but still better than “it’s his time”.

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/LowkickDick/ LowkickDick

    #2 Devastating Striker – I the writer is going to reference the Shields fight to measure GSP’s striking abilities it would only be fair to mention that GSP only started to look bad after he received a finger in the eye. Until that point Shields was not threatening at all.

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Plexomatic/ Plexomatic

    eliminate the cage rust factor , Carlos hasn’t fought since Feb/12

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/D/ D

    1) You make a valid point.

    2) Your point is completely invalid for several reasons.

    First, there were two things to be remembered from GSP’s fight with Shields. You seem to forget that GSP fought the majority of that fight with one eye. By the way, he still landed the more significant strikes in that fight, came close to a KO at one point, and easily won the decision. GSP is a much better striker than that performance indicates. Try shutting your right eye and sparring with an orthodox fighter some time. See how well you can avoid the jab.

    Second, only an MMA novice would forget that GSP always fights his opponents “where they are weakest”. Just like he chose to fight Shields, an “unspectacular striker” but fantastic grappler on the feet, he will avoid Condit’s strong suit, his standup, by keeping him on his back for 22-23 minutes of this fight. Only an MMA novice would think that Condit has the wrestling skills to avoid this fate. GSP is the best wrestler, not only in his division, but in all of MMA, and in all of MMA history. Condit is known for poor take down defense. It is 100% GSP’s choice where this fight is contested.

    Third, while Condit has outstruck some great strikers recently, none of them have had the reach, none of them have the speed or athleticism of GSP. The comparison to the Nick Diaz fight is completely invalid here. Nick is a fighter who throws punches almost exclusively and relentlessly moves forward. GSP uses kicks and jabs to keep his opponent at distance, moves much more effectively than Diaz, and is faster and more explosive…Why am I bothering to make this point anyway? This fight is going to be on the ground 90+% of the time. You don’t win a fight outstriking someone for 2 minutes.

    3) You make a somewhat valid point. However over the entirety of his career, GSP has certainly faced higher level competition than Condit, having been in the UFC far longer. He has 13 finishes in 24 FIGHTS. And Condit has 26 finishes in 33 FIGHTS. The important things is how many FIGHTS you finish, not how many wins you finish. GSP is more of a finisher than you gave him credit for (you gave him none) and Condit is slightly less of a finisher than you gave him credit for.

    Still, Condit is the better finisher, so you make a valid point here…somewhat.

    4) “He’s the bigger guy” – laughably fallacious. GSP is clearly the bigger stronger guy. I guarantee you he cut more weight than Condit for this fight. Despite being taller, he does not even have a reach advantage (both 76″), and GSP is great at using jabs and kicks to keep his opponents off. Coming from a karate background, his kicks are at least as good if not better than Condits. And yeah, your suggestion that GSP may struggle to take Condit down too is ridiculous too. See above.

    5) “It’s his time” and “it just seems like he want’s it more”. Seriously? You should have just written four reasons if that’s the best you can do.

    I give you two rounds. You still lose 48-47. That’s two points more than Condit will earn tonight…maybe 3 or 4 more if GSP’s ground and pound is particularly effective.

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/IChokePeople/ IChokePeople

    I’ve got Condit winning this fight and I still think this article was garbage. BTW, Shields striking may not look great but watch some of his fights. I don’t know how but he makes those slow punches land. He won his last fight on strikes too.

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/HunterB/ HunterB

    What the hell is this crap

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Brian-Cox/ Brian Cox

    Point by point:

    Cage Rust – I guess it doesn’t settle in until the 10th month, otherwise Condit must be rusty, too.

    Devastating Striker – since coming to The UFC Carlos is 5 & 1, with 50% of his fights going the way of decision and one of his TKO’s coming by way of a questionable stoppage, against a very young and green, Rory MacDonald. A fight that he would have lost had it not been for the stoppage. In terms of GSP’s devastating striking, we should defer to the opinion(s) of Josh Koscheck’s eye surgeon(s).

    He’s a killer – against lesser talent and again, in The UFC he’s a 50/50 guy, not a 93% guy. Again on this subject one might wish to talk to Koscheck or Penn.

    He’s the bigger guy – if you mean taller. OK. If you mean anything else, you would be wrong. GSP is bigger, wider, stronger, more athletic fighter. Period. I doubt seriously that CD could hang with Rush for some of his workouts, where GSP could do anything that Condit might do. Advantage GSP in power, strength, speed, athleticism and explosiveness.

    It’s time – this isn’t a rational argument, it’s a hope. From what I’ve seen of George, his intensity in rehab, the effort he’s put in, the smile on his face through out media week, I don’t see how one could look at that and say…Condit wants it more. Once could make the argument that if Condit wanted it more, he would have taken a fight in the last ten months to prove his dominance in the division, his worthiness as “interim” champ, to test his metal and fight off “ring rust”.

    One thing I notice that’s not on this list is any mention of Condit’s wrestling or his ability to stop take-downs. However, I guess to list those things, one might have to re-title the article.

    Can Carlos win tonight? Yes. If he can land one on George. Do I think he will win? No. I don’t think he’s going to be able to stop all that wresting and take-down, which wasn’t mentioned in this article.

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Mindkontrolle/ mindkontrolle

    Someone got owned…

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Codemaster/ codemaster

    GSP and Condit both have 76 ” reaches.

    The writer of the article implies Condit’s reach is greater than GSP’s.

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/IChokePeople/ IChokePeople

    Correct me if I am wrong but reach is tip to tip, right? In that case it would include shoulder width. GSP has wider shoulders but Condit appears to have longer arms and thus longer effective reach.

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/DKMcGrath/ DKMcGrath

    5 ways Condit can win
    1.poke him in the eye.
    2.avoid the takedown
    3.avoid the jab
    4.kick his hurt leg
    5.throw crazy overhands
    6.if this doesnt work start back at one

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Brian-Cox/ Brian Cox

    I think you just coughed-up CD’s game plane. It’s an algorithm. LOL!!!!! Freakin, hilarious, dude. LOL!!!

    Now that, is truly funny!

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Brian-Cox/ Brian Cox

    Five Reasons Why Carlos Condit Will Not Win!

    Round 1
    Round 2

    ..@ an average of $10 per round, being pro-rated for the referee’s stoppage @ 4:59 seconds of the 5th round. Thus, providing both dollar value for the buy and entertainment value for the dominant finish….AND STILL WELTER-WEIGHT CHAMPION OF THE WORLD…GEORGE “RUSH” ST. PIERRE.

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Kris-tyahn/ Kris-tyahn

    Yeah, who knew all that cuddling could make a guy lose 2 pints of blod & make his face look hamberger meat. Way to pretend that you know what you’re talking about, but pretending won’t work dummy, people who gave you the “weak” are much more educated than you. Though I highly Condit agrees that GSP was only cuddling him, but I’m sure you’re right ….. BAHAHAHAHA STFU idiot!

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Kris-tyahn/ Kris-tyahn

    LMAO – I really enojyed #5! Actually I enjoed everything, but #5 was my favorite!

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Kris-tyahn/ Kris-tyahn

    ding ding ding ding ding ding we have a winner!

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Kris-tyahn/ Kris-tyahn


  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Kris-tyahn/ Kris-tyahn

    lol =- not bad, but the fight stayed on the feet for a little more than 10 mins, and GSP still didn’t lose the striking battle & the grappling …. BAHAHAHA yeah Condit’s going to defend GSP’s takedowns ….. wink wink!!!

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Kris-tyahn/ Kris-tyahn

    BTW: your #5 was priceless ….. 5) “It’s his time” and “it just seems like he want’s it more”. Seriously? You should have just written four reasons if that’s the best you can do. BAHAHAHAHAHA

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Kris-tyahn/ Kris-tyahn

    Agreed – 1 pt MMA truth & 0 for the guy getting paid to write “facts” about MMA.

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Kris-tyahn/ Kris-tyahn

    LMAO – some really funny posts from a few people. I love it!

  • http://lowkickmma.com/members/Michaelchimique/ michaelchimique

    well that’s nice and all, remind me who the welterweight champion is ?